Brian Foley Associates president Brian Foley foresees a recovery of the business aviation industry in the middle of next year, but not before unavoidable pain, according to a Feb. 10 AINalerts online newsletter report. He believes the current slowdown will end when financial markets stabilize which, he predicted, will be around the middle of next year.
“There are vulnerable companies that are young, leveraged or lack sufficient capital to ride out a prolonged downturn,” he told AIN, adding that recent start-up air taxi, charter and fractional programs are likely to be “short lived.”
He predicted some shakeups, even at established but weaker aviation companies such as single-product OEMs. Meanwhile, he said, FBOs, maintenance and other aviation service providers “will also find 2009 difficult,” especially in light of reports that “normal” business jet flight activity is down 30% to 40%.
“The manufacturing slowdown will quickly trickle down the supply chain, which will be one of the last segments to recover,” Foley said. “Things will have settled by mid-2010 and the industry will once again be poised for growth, albeit slower than we’ve been accustomed to in the recent past.”