In the ongoing debate the elimination of 100LL, a statistic that’s often thrown around is that 70% to 80% of the existing fleet could operate on existing fuels, while only 20% to 30% of the fleet require 100 octane fuels. But what GA needs to remember is that those 20-30% buy a majority of the fuel, says Tim Roehl, co-owner of General Aviation Modifications Inc. (GAMI), developer of G100UL, a would-be replacement for 100LL.
“We’ve got to have that 20-30% contributing their dollars to fuel, maintenance, sales and parts for GA to survive,” he says. “We dare not do anything to challenge that.”
That’s because if that portion of the fleet is grounded, the rest of GA will also be grounded, he says. “We will lose the infrastructure.”
Another thing that GA needs to realize is that while avgas is a very small percentage of transportation fuel — some estimates place it at less than 1%, deeming it a “boutique” fuel — it also is a fuel that refineries “make a healthier than average margin on,” according to Roehl.
“Another thing that GA needs to realize is that while avgas is a very small percentage of transportation fuel — some estimates place it at less than 1%, deeming it a “boutique†fuel — it also is a fuel that refineries “make a healthier than average margin on,†according to Roehl.”
Making a “… healthier than average margin …” on a fuel that, in actuality, represents less than 0.15% of the gasoline made in the U.S. is inconsequential to the gasoline companies, especially considering all of the special handling necessary to produce a leaded product. If I was a bean counter at a refinery, I would recommend to management to stop making 100 LL avgas, and apparently that is what is happening, since less that 10 refineries make it any more in North America and I heard at AirVenture that one of those refineries is going to stop making it this fall.
The problem is, no one knows for sure what the number really is. The best estimates we have seen put the sales of 100LL to those who must have it at around 50%-60% and trending downwards as many of these people upgrade to turbine singles and light jets. On the other hand, the latest generation of light aircraft for flight schools and recreational flying are powered by engines (Rotax, Jabiru, etc.) that are designed to operate best on premium, ethanol-free Mogas. While the 70%-80% of all piston engine airplanes that can run just fine on Premium ethanol-free Mogas account for probably no more than half the current 100LL sales, they are far more plentiful and account for most of the airport revenue for hangar leases and maintenance, two other important sources for revenue. Sport Aviators are far more likely to be involved in EAA chapters, Young Eagle Rallies, Fly-Ins, etc. that improve the airport’s public image and keep things alive. We need both communities and two fuels: 100 octane (or its replacement) in addition to affordable Mogas. See PURE-GAS.org for a list of over 1200 places where ethanol-free gasoline is available.