Flying magazine’s Robert Goyer predicts that the next few years will be “pivotal” ones for general aviation. “From time to time in history, for reasons that are hard to understand even in hindsight, a short period of years becomes the confluence for a number of critical events that one might have seen coming but the conclusion of which no one can reliably predict,” he says in his latest blog post. “It seems to me that the second half of the 2010s will be a time of such change, much of it focused on the economics, sustainability and safety of flight.” Read the full post here.
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After more than 50 years as a professional pilot and aviation entrepreneur, I can see the end of personal flying in the U.S. on the not-too-distant horizon. However, I’m optimistic because the Center For Airmanship Excellence is about to demonstrate how to turn things around.
The article raises lots of good questions. But I don’t see any solutions offered, nor do I see justification for thinking the next 5 years is going to be any different than the last 30. The reason GA is suffering is because it is just too expensive. Airplanes are fairly simple devices, much simpler than a car, the cost should be comparable. I don’t see the bureaucracy that drives that cost going away in the next 5 years.
“To expensive”? Frankly, that’s YOUR, and many others, subjective (personal) take. WHAT your REALLY saying is simply; “the benefit DOESN’T equal the cost, at least for YOU. Perhaps flying “remotes” would ease your financial pain?
By definition, GA is suffering because it isn’t popular by the general populace. That is the way success is measured. As you point out, many members of the general populace believe it is too expensive to enter. The logic is pretty obvious. If you define success in some other manner (the sport of kings, maybe), then by that definition, GA is doing great.
Your premise, and correct me if I misunderstand you, is that by the popularity, this IS the measurement of success? Try telling that to the top management of the Lexus Division of Toyota! A “vertical” and niche market – QUALITY customer – one who is willing and VALUES that the benefit far exceeds the cost. The recreational segment of GA is (has) succumbed from what WAS once a QUANITY of DEMAND (50′-80’s) to one of QUALITY, which would EXCLUDE the general (demographic) populace. And “success “, in the business world, is measured by $ profit $ and customer satisfaction. I rest my case.
You can’t win an argument by changing the definitions of the words because that then becomes a different argument.
The author defined the measurement of success as the number of private pilots. That number has been in decline for decades. I merely pointed out that none of the technological advances he cited will encourage people to pursue a private pilot license. Some things that might encourage more pilots:
eliminate the 3rd class medicals
develop entry level airplanes (certified, not home-built experimental or ultralights or luxury aircraft).
Market the sport as something other than elitist.
Here’s a “pivitol” issue that wasn’t covered in the extended article i.e. how about trashing the third class medical…………….