During the depths of the Great Recession in 2009, U.S. airlines hired just 30 pilots, a record industry low. This year, they are on track to hire nearly 4,000, the most in the past 15 years. In fact, pilot hiring in 2016 “will set a new record,” according to Nevada-based FAPA.aero in its latest study.
Louis Smith, president of FAPA.aero, a retired airline captain who has been watching the industry for 43 years, said “The nine U.S. major airlines collectively hired more than 26,000 pilots in the last 15 years. That number will double during the next 15 years.”
Smith says the record hiring is being triggered by industry growth and the attrition of senior captains who have reached the mandatory age 65-retirement point in their careers.
Pilot staffing at regional airlines, where carriers are already grounding aircraft due to a shortage of crews, “is only the beginning,” according to Smith.
Other sectors are also affected by the major airlines’ pilot demand, he noted.
“Even corporate flight departments, traditionally a stronghold of job security, as well as the U.S. military are losing experienced aviators due to the lure of major airline pilot jobs,” Smith said.
He warned that while pilot shortages may appear small today, the strength of the shortage’s vacuum will begin increasing by mid-2016.
FAPA is creating an industry job fair and a half-day educational seminar focusing on two different pilot sectors, those who are seeking their next cockpit opportunity and high school and other students, as well as their families, who may just now be considering a pilot career.
FAPA.aero’s Focus on the Future conference for aspiring pilots begins at 2:30 p.m. Friday, Nov. 20 at the Double Tree Orlando Airport. Focus on the Future will provide students and parents with information about pilot demand, compensation and the cost of pilot training and education.
That same day, FAPA will also hold an industry job fair beginning at 9 a.m. at the Double Tree Orlando Airport for pilots seeking their next professional opportunity. At press time, 13 airlines have committed to attend the job fair.
Any thoughts on helicopter pilot demand? I see manufacturing new choppers is down, and with offshore oilfield in the dumps; I think I can answer my own question here. Well… Time to brain storm. Firefighting pilots? Alaska bush pilots? There has to be some substantial career path for someone who wants to fly for a living at $180k/year. Life is more expensive, let’s be more realistic and say what we all know… If you are not making $150k/year and have a family, you are barely living.
Nine major airlines? AA, DAL, and United are the only majors left. They and the two big cargo lines are hiring over 3000 pilots/year now, mostly from the regional and ultra-low-cost airlines. The smaller airlines are hiring as fast as they can, but there are few new pilots, only a few hundred American citizens became newly qualified airline pilots last year.
Young people are not smarter than they were decades ago, but they are massively better informed. They know what a career as a pilot is like, the pay and conditions and likely future, and they aren’t interested. After nearly 50 years involved in military and commercial aviation, I don’t recommend it to parents and kids who come to me for advice on the career.
We will likely see a brief improvement in pilot pay at the smaller airlines, but conditions will get worse, and automation will knock demand back within a decade. DARPA is spending crazy money on cockpit automation to replace right-seaters, with their ALIAS program. It is getting close to achieving that goal.
No mention of an increase in pay for the regional airlines
Phil. If you look at airline pilot pay over time they start low at regionals, but quickly increase to levels that aerospace engineers would not even imagine of expecting.
How quickly? An 18-yr-old enters Embry Riddle to be an airline pilot. $200,000 and eight years later he gets hired at a regional for $20k/yr. Right now, good times, he makes captain at that regional in three years, earning $40k, and in a few more years he is making over $60k. Now decision time: the majors are hiring, should he drop back to $40k/yr? He does, and in eight more years he is making over $100k/yr as an international first officer at 41 yrs old. It is a tough life, lots of all-nighters and gone from home 20+ days/month, mostly in cheap hotels, and lots of it over weekends and holidays. Eventually he makes captain, approaching $200k/yr in his late 50s, but still a hard life to enjoy it in. But this is unrealistic, as only one in ten make it through the flight training, and one in ten of those make it to captain at a major airline. Not good odds.
Running the numbers and applying interest and opportunity costs, he would have had a better life as an aerospace engineer, but really we should compare him to doctors or lawyers with similarly expensive training.