WASHINGTON, D.C. — Shipments of general aviation aircraft dropped 3.5% worldwide in the third quarter of this year, according to the latest figures from the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA).
In the first nine months of the year, 1,504 airplanes were shipped, compared to 1,558 in 2015.
Rotorcraft shipments declined 16% to 615 compared to 732 in the same period last year.
Combined airplane and rotorcraft billings were $15.9 billion year-to-date in 2016 compared to last year’s $19.1 billion, a drop of 16.5%.
“There’s no way to sugarcoat the fact that these numbers are not what we had wanted to see,” GAMA President and CEO Pete Bunce said. “Unfortunately, they reflect the instability of the used aircraft market, coupled with complicating global economic and geopolitical factors. What is encouraging is that every GAMA airplane and rotorcraft manufacturer has a new product development program recently completed or currently underway, so optimism for the future runs high.
“Now that the U.S. elections are behind us, we look forward to working with the incoming administration and the new Congress, as well as their counterparts across the globe, to highlight the importance of a vibrant general and business aviation industry with manufacturing, maintenance, and overhaul jobs at its core,” Bunce continued. “We also welcome a focus on making critical infrastructure investments, particularly airports and heliports, to support a safe and growing global aviation system. We stand ready to work with elected and appointed officials on policies that facilitate certification reform and product innovation, and improve the validation and acceptance of products worldwide.”
Turboprop airplane shipments generated a bright spot in the deliveries with 379, up 1.3% from 2015. Piston airplane deliveries declined from 719 to 696. In addition, business jets slipped 7.7% from the same period last year, from 465 in 2015 to 429 this year. Piston rotorcraft fell 17.6% to 168 shipped. A total of 447 turbine rotorcraft were shipped, a reduction of 15.3% versus the same period in 2015.
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“There’s no way to sugarcoat the fact that these numbers are not what we had wanted to see,” GAMA President and CEO Pete Bunce said. “Unfortunately, they reflect the instability of the used aircraft market coupled with complicating global economic and geopolitical factors.” (from Nov. 10th AVweb Article)
…and there’s just no way to “sugarcoat” my response to that/this hogwash;
So …the elite Business (Aviation) club is experiencing a bit of drop in membership (revenues) these days??
By forgetting its core roots and the re-inventing of itself into a ‘profit-solely-for-its-own-sake’ ‘business’ model, perhaps the ‘General-Aviation’ INDUSTRY is now finally beginning to feel the effects of its shortsightedness, in painting itself into the very limited little corner it’s only now beginning to realize it’s in?!?
It is mind-bogglingly appalling the manner in which this ‘Industry’, in its present incarnation, shamefully continues to perpetuate the illusion that it hasn’t (deliberately) mutated into something totally unrecognizable from how it was born and existed, for the better part of the last 100 years …now destined, by design and careful maintenance, to cater solely to an extremely small, ‘elite’, and most affluent segment of our society …a perfectly constructed, self-perpetuating, insulating ‘bubble’, what was once a great, vibrant, perpetually growth potentiated and mostly unique to the USA phenomena …’General Aviation’.
Is it deliberate ‘spin’, outright propaganda, or just plain ‘denial’?
Most of Europe and all of present day Asia have no (and really never had any) such thing as ‘General Aviation’ …solely because of the PROHIBITABLY EXPENSIVE costs. Their citizens have long been coming here to pursue that dream we’ve all taken for granted! (but even that may change …read: practically grind to a halt, now that the new draconian EASA Flight Crew licensing regs have kicked in) Active participation in our wonderful world of ‘Flight’ here in the USA has always been on the (relatively) expensive side, but up until recently remained the best (and only) place on the planet to do so.
But! …let’s take a hard look at what ‘we’ (US General Aviation) have allowed to happen:
…In 1979/80, the peak of GA aircraft production, almost 20,000 piston airplanes rolled off the assembly lines with a US population of about 200 million. The average price of an airplane was 2-3 times that of a new car.
…In 2013, with a population of just over 300 million people, about 500 pistons were produced/delivered each year …and the average prices are 2-3 times the (median) price of a (equally over-inflated) house!
First of all ‘General Aviation’ is doing just fine …never better in fact. That is if when you say “General Aviation” …you mean the 98 percent of GA which consist of ‘executive’ aircraft. Ninety eight (98) percent of the GA industry’s annual revenue now comes from Turbine aircraft (Bizjets and Turboprops)
According to GAMA Statistics; In 1978 there were over 14,000 piston singles produced and just over 2,600 twins, for a total dollar value of just over $1 billion in 1979 dollars …which is about $3.6 billion in today’s dollars.
Total ‘Turbine’ GA aircraft produced were 779 with a total value of $772 million in 1978 dollars …which is about $2.8 billion in today’s money.
So the ‘little guy‘ was THE major source of revenue for the GA industry as late as 1978 …not the business bigwigs . That says a lot about where we where and where we have come to. Of course back then the head of the company made maybe 15-20 times as much as the Joe on the shop floor …what is it today?
Let’s look at those numbers a little more closely; The average cost of that executive airplane (the turbine variety) was just under $1 million …about 3.5 million in today’s dollars. Today the average sticker price is $10+ million.
The average cost of a piston plane in 1978 was $58,000 (INCLUDING light to medium twins and all the high end singles) which is about $200,000 in today’s money. If we could separate the twins from the singles we would find the average piston single price would be closer to $90,000 …in today’s dollars.
Now what really bears notice is the fact that those 30 some years ago, there were far less than 1,000 big spenders who could spend the equivalent of $3.5 million in today’s money for a Bizjet or Turboprop …but there were 17,000+ little guys who could afford to buy a piston single or even a light twin …over 2,600 twins. Who has gained and who has lost?
Well the ‘GA’ Industry is doing nicely. It has increased sales from $3 billion a year in today’s dollars to well over $20 billion.
The big spenders also don’t seem to be doing too badly. There’s now over 2,000 of them buying a new executive airplane every year (almost three times as many) …and paying more than three times as much on average for the airplane …a nearly tenfold increase in spending power by the big spenders.
Let’s just repeat that …A NEARLY TENFOLD INCREASE IN SPENDING POWER.
At the same time (light) piston airplanes, which made up more than 60 percent of ‘General Aviation’ …60 percent! …even as late as 1978, today make up just TWO lousy percent (2%) of sales by dollar. Want to buy a new airplane Joe? …can you write a check for $500,000?
What it all adds up to is that the rich have gotten much richer …while the middle class dream of airplane ownership is toast. It’s not surprising that most if not all of our Industry publications are funded almost entirely by big spending ‘Business Aviation’ …and continues to deliberately confuse things by lumping us ‘little’ aviators on life support in with the rest of ‘GA’.
Please!! …it is time for some ‘Honesty’!
And please forgive me, as I really don’t wish to sound sarcastic, but it’s just mind-boggling to a (simple minded?) guy like myself how casually, and with such cavalier so many ‘representatives’ of the Aviation Industry quote prices for production, the average ‘Light Sport’, or any other 2-4 place ‘Light Airplane’. What a perfectly reasonable price ($150-200K) to pay for a (new) ‘Light Sport’ airplane …or the $400+K for a “moderately tricked out Cessna 172″ …or the 1.2 mil!!?? for a SENECA, version 5 recently reviewed in AOPA Pilot, (another 45+ year old, basically unchanged airframe design) …I mean, what’s wrong with that …isn’t that just about right …why ain’t everybody buyin’ em?!?
How can such sums for such airplanes ever be (reasonably) justified?? And we wonder why new pilot certification is half what it was just two decades ago?? Why (aircraft) rental rates have gotten beyond the reach of most would be Sunday Flyers?
What could possibly be causing this decline in our beloved activity?!? (‘Private/Recreational Aviation’)
In most all the ‘other’ industries that are a factor in every other facet of our lives (save for our uniquely corrupt Health-Care ‘Industry’) …one that bears mention is the financial industry. Every product we buy has over 30 percent of its price built in for finance overhead that it took to bring that product to market, on average …in some cases it is much higher …interest charges, brokerage fees , etc. Yet even with all that financial overhead, a lot of consumer products still deliver more for your inflation adjusted buck than they did 15 to 20 years ago. That is a fact. Cars bought today are a far better value for the dollar, same with the lawn tractor, the big screen TV, the washing machine, etc.
And before you start ‘raving’ about the unique and ”excessive regulatory” environment that aircraft manufacturers have to endure …they were ALL operating under those basically unchanged set of rules way back in the 70-80’s as well …so what exactly changed??
The only thing today that costs five times as much as it did 30 years ago is a new airplane. Talk all you want about the cost of hangars, fuel, insurance, maintenance etc. …those things are a fact of life everywhere, but it is new and AFFORDABLE products that drive an industry. And unfortunately, the personal ‘Recreational Airplane’ industry is finished because the average price of a new 4 place piston airplane is half a million+ dollars …which less than 1.5% of the population could ever afford/justify.
That is strictly an ‘Industry’ issue. If the automotive industry wanted to build an airplane for $50,000, do you think they couldn’t? …sure they could. And they would sell who knows how many thousands at that price.
Cessna, like Piper, Beechcraft and others in the 50’s, 60’s & 70’s who once not only supported, but actually ‘CREATED’ a market for ‘General Aviation’, by providing aircraft, not only for the affluent, but airplanes that the ‘Average-Joe’ could actually afford, now give us the $400,000+ venerable C172 and the $500,000+ Cherokee. Basic, single engine, 4 place, fixed gear, fixed prop, simple low HP ‘Light Airplanes’ …whose basic airframes have been around for over half a century and whose R & D, tooling and most all other initial development costs have long since been paid for many times over, decades ago. Essentially, (very) old airframe designs with a few tweaks and upgraded to some modern avionics (which also SHOULD cost substantially less than their steam gauge, analog counterparts)
These manufacturers decided, long ago, that Corporate (Turbine) aircraft is “where the monies at” (and an extremely lucrative amount of money at that) And the LSA (‘Industry’) which was supposed to be GA’s “savior” has, it seems, quickly succumbed to the disease …behold the Cub Crafters Carbon Cub An even simpler TWO place, basic, fixed gear, fixed prop, low HP ‘LIGHT SPORT’ airplane with a basic avionics package for the bargain price of 200K!
This is what has been/is still primarily responsible for the demise of ‘General Aviation’ …as those of us who numbered among what was generally perceived to make up its largest segment during the 60’s, 70’s and into the early 90’s have been so fortunate to have been a part of.
….continued next;
…Continued last – part 2 of 2:
The ‘Experimental’ ‘Industry’ has been equally infected …as for the all of those available ‘Kits’ out there today. Realistically, even a modest, two place, fixed gear/prop with a basic IFR panel (that by reg, one actually can’t utilize for it’s designed purposes) 140+ kt airplane most often sports (pun intended) a finished price of close to 100K …many others almost twice that! But don’t forget …ya still have to build (and maintain) it yourself!
The aircraft industry now looks at things differently; The ‘GA’ (BUSINESS) aircraft industry makes over $20 billion a year in revenue by selling 2,000 executive aircraft at an average price of $10 million each In order to make $20 billion in sales selling (little)airplanes, even at $100,000 apiece, they would have to sell 200,000 small airplanes a year. That’s never going to happen …there simply are not 200,000 people who are interested in buying their own airplane each and every year …or have the extra $100,000 lying around to do so. So the numbers are woefully against the ‘rest of us’ …that is the reality.
We must all come to grips with the fact that ‘General Aviation’ is now solely ‘Business Aviation’ NOT the little guys flying around for personal or ‘recreational’ purposes in Cessnas & Cherokees. That is not what ‘General Aviation’ is anymore. The ‘Aircraft Industry’ sure knows this …and that’s why they made the (rational?) choice that it is not worth it.
Repeat: General Aviation is now ‘Business Aviation’ …Long Live The King!
And while I’m not so naive (or young and foolish) or unappreciative to not understand that it was (is?) the engine of ‘Capitalism’ that made ‘GENERAL’ Aviation attainable to most of the masses in the first place, and ‘Business Aviation’ was indeed a (if not “The”) very large and essential part of ‘General Aviation’ which fueled that engine …unfortunately, it has become (painfully) obvious to me (and I suspect more than just a “vocal minority” of our “community”) that the US Aviation ‘Industry’, along with its publications and all of our ‘alphabet ‘Associations’, and dare I postulate, even the EAA, all who’ve been a welcomed part of my life during my almost 40 year love affair with Aviation, have morphed into what indeed it seems ‘Corporate America’ has equally mutated into …’Business’ entities whose SOLE purpose appears to be the pursuit of profit …SOLELY for its own sake, and the unlimited enrichment of their upper echelons.
…But I digress.
Well, so that’s the problem. And guess what? Now at least knowing what the problem is just maybe we can start looking for solutions. But the solution is not to just root for ‘Business Aviation’ …and bankroll their lobbying fights in rotten DC. And yes …as has just become overwhelmingly apparent with our last election fiasco, WDCorruption is a very real truth. Unfortunately, it is exactly that kind of lobbying of (our) ‘Special Interest’ groups that is/has been the problem.
And the little guy (privately) flying around in piston airplanes is all but extinct already. That’s why we hear the message all the time that what is good for ‘Business Aviation’ is good for the little guy . This has been a mantra at ‘Flying’ (magazine) publications for quite some time …even as the little guy aviator continues to wither away …while Bizav continues to grow and prosper.
I’m afraid these greedy times we’re a livin’ and the EXPONENTIALLY accelerating rate of expense, will only serve to hasten the time when the final nails are driven. We’re rapidly destroying ‘General (Recreational) Aviation’ in this country …making it solely a ‘Rich Mans Sport’.
And as to the reasons for its demise? Surely, if you’re (intellectually) honest with yourselves, (and you know who you are) you understand the point of this (lowly 2-cents-worth) comment. If not, then …no offense …uplifting, hopeful enthusiasm notwithstanding, but with none of the cold, clear logical pragmatism so necessary for one to be a successful ‘PIC’ …you’re ‘rowing down that famous long river in Egypt’ …or are of that myopic ‘mindset’ of those who have caused and /or are still actively involved in the death of General Aviation …are in fact one of the many active and willing participants in it …and, unfortunately, part of the problem …certainly NOT the solution.
We (as in ALL of us) have just witnessed the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind in this country (no …this IS NOT “Class Warfare” talk here …just an honest, objective assessment of the data & facts) …and our beloved and nearly extinct ‘General Aviation’ has just simply been one of its many and most obvious casualties.
“Why” …the rapidly decreasing pilot population? …the rapidly downward spiral of total logged hours? …a Pilot shortage?? …sluggish sales factors?? …continuing decline in attendance at Oshkosh?
And now …a (continuing) trend towards decreasing BIZAV sales!! (Oh My!)
…very, very sad indeed.
Could it be there are just to many airplanes out there already?