The Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) is calling on the National Transportation Safety Board to conduct an internal review to examine why the agency has approved “speculative probable cause reports related to general aviation accidents” despite little evidence to support the conclusions.
AOPA Senior Vice President of Government Affairs Jim Coon criticized speculative practices that seem to be finding their way “into the culture of NTSB.”
He objected to probable cause findings of medical incapacitation that have appeared in accident investigations, “contrary to other compelling evidence,” in a letter to Bella Dinh-Zarr, the NTSB’s acting chairman.
AOPA officials say they are concerned that in some cases the NTSB is relying less on facts and more on speculation.
“Several recent probable cause findings raise concern about an erosion of data-driven, facts-based standards that have long given NTSB accident analyses credibility,” Coon wrote.
“Personally, after having worked with the NTSB for decades, it is disheartening that the board is now allowing someone at the staff level to approve these academic probable cause determinations. Moreover, I am dismayed that the board’s Chief Medical Examiner allows this speculative practice to continue,” he continued.
“We hope the board would work towards a more data driven approach similar to that which the FAA has embraced, and more specifically the Flight Safety Standards Division. Together, we have invested significant time and effort to move to a data driven approach under the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) and the General Aviation Joint Steering Committee (GAJSC),” he wrote.
An internal review could correct the problem of speculative probable cause determinations, he said, and ensure that “personal agendas in the medical office are not being incorporated into the board’s reports.”
The landing accident described in NTSB Accident number GAA15LA027 is a case in point. In recent months several other accidents, like this one have a sparse to useless “Final Report”, a speculative (and arguable) probable cause. The common theme for many of these data free reports? No docket information. Supposedly the NTSB Docket contains the key documents that were used by NTSB accident investigators in their determination of when, what, where (exactly), why, when, how… all of this makes determining the “how come” (i.e. the PROBABLE CAUSE) just a black box exercise that lacks credibility or substance. Within just the past year or two the NTSB accident reports are increasingly opaque and vague… especially if the accident resulted in minimal damage AND there was no significant ‘newsiness’ about it… such as with HF’s taxiway landing.