By Philip Handleman
Until COVID-19 reared its head, the specter of a pilot shortage was among the most persistent worries hanging over commercial aviation.
That concern has not gone away, it has only been sidelined with the pathogen’s proliferation. Historical precedent suggests that air travel will rebound. The real question is whether there will be enough pilots to meet the eventual demand.
Underscoring the depth of the predicament is the fact that the pilot population in the U.S. has been in chronic decline. It crested at 827,071 in 1980. By 2019, the most recent year for which FAA data is available, the number had slipped to 664,565, a drop of nearly 20%.
Even more disturbing, the subgroup of private pilots like myself who have traditionally formed the backbone of America’s flying community may be morphing into a dying breed. Between 1980 and 2019, our numbers fell precipitously from 357,479 to 161,105, a tumble of 55%.
Additionally, the aircraft most private pilots fly, single-engine piston-powered planes, are in their own numerical freefall.
About 10,000 were stricken from the active general aviation fleet from 2010 through 2019. The FAA forecasts that the number will shrink further — from 129,535 to a mere 104,335 by 2040, a falloff of 19.55%.
Not only will there be fewer such planes, the FAA forecasts that the hours flown in these types will decline by an average of 1% each year from 2020 to 2040.
Long before the pandemic, the slide in flight activity at many of the nation’s small airports contrasted paradoxically with the growth in airline operations. In an ironic twist, as air travelers increasingly enjoyed relatively cheap and convenient airline transportation, aviation’s base drifted into an abiding malaise where it remains stuck.
Small airports have customarily served as the wellspring for young enthusiasts, but the luster at those fields of dreams has faded as evidenced by the disheartening scene of fewer would-be aviators hanging out with the slowly dwindling lot of aged airmen who dominate the ramps.
Casual bystanders would be correct to explain the deterioration at aviation’s foundational level, in part, by pointing to the prodigious rise in the cost of flying. Back when I started flying a half-century ago, the purchase of a new plane was equivalent to the purchase of an expensive car. By contrast, today a new plane is like buying an expensive house.
Operating and ownership costs such as fuel, insurance, hangar rental, and mandated equipage upgrades have risen proportionately over time, limiting the flight hours of private pilots and discouraging newcomers.
Turning around the declining pilot numbers will require concerted efforts like more support for small airports and the creation of a project patterned after the Civilian Pilot Training Program/War Training Service that produced 435,165 pilots from 1939 to 1944.
Still, the answer will not be achieved solely from improving flying’s accessibility and affordability.
At least equally as important is the rebirth of an air-minded culture — doing something to make young people want to come to small airports to learn to fly in the first place.
In this, we can take a cue from the past.
President John F. Kennedy’s stirring call for a manned voyage to the Moon a generation ago sparked the public’s imagination. Growing up in the early 1960s, I and most of the kids in my neighborhood wanted to emulate the Mercury 7 astronauts who soared aloft on fiery booster rockets as we watched in black-and-white on fuzzy TV screens in the school gym.
While returning astronauts to the Moon in 2024, as currently planned under NASA’s Artemis program, is a welcome objective, we must get real about aiming for a destination that takes us beyond where we have already been.
Talk of the Moon becoming a stepping stone to a manned mission to Mars in the 2030s is too vague. The next President should champion not only Artemis, but tap further into our sense of discovery and adventure by setting a firm timeline for a crewed trip to Mars.
Just as with the Apollo program, there will be excitement over the explicit summons to unite in a grand enterprise to embark on a trajectory to a world not yet touched by humans. The astronauts slated to be at the tip of that spear will become our heroes and inspire a new generation to gaze skyward as astronauts of old did for me and others of my generation.
When coupled with the aviation-specific measures, the announcement of the new space objective will draw young people to flying in greater numbers and kickstart activity at the unheralded airports where flight originates, resulting in an abundant pilot pipeline that keeps flight on the go in the atmosphere and beyond.
Philip Handleman lives on his own grass airstrip in southeast Michigan. His latest book is Soaring to Glory, the story of an American fighter pilot.
Only professional people will be flying General Aviation in the years to come. The main reason is money. The rent is out of reach for the little guy. When I flew commercially, I got paid for it, now that I’m retired, I can’t afford to rent a C-172.
Hi Stuart:
I like the idea of using and promoting the use of flight simulators to anyone….and I own 2 of
them myself. My flight school has three of them. The downside, is that the ones at the flight
school sit unused most of the time. CFIs are loathe to use or promote their use. After all, why
use a simulator when the CFI can be paid to have the student fly the real airplane? Most CFIs
tend to look at the simulator as somewhat of a threat in that they don’t build any hours in
a simulator (toward that magic 1500 hour airline entry requirement). I had a few tell me that
“flying” a non-flying simulator is nothing more than “fake flying”…..which is, in a sense, true
I guess. Everyone (pilots and CFIs) tend to overlook the “benefits’ of simulation, such as
developing “muscle memory”, keeping rote actions alive, using check lists, just practicing
maneuvers, as much as possible and developing a strong sense of reading and understanding
instrument indications which all work on simulators. On the flip side, simulators generally
don’t offer the sense of movement, taxing, and flying in cross-winds are nearly impossible to
accomplish on a simulator. Likewise, there is not realistic ATC on the simulator. There are
some “canned” ATC on FSX, and some really wierd ATC voices on X-Plane, but other than that
not much out there to enhance reality. I have tried VATSIM (ATC), but it relies mostly on texting
and is not at all realistic, since most of the “ATC controllers” are clowns and are neither realistic
nor helpful. Here on the East Coast, “Pilot Edge” while very realistic, is not available EAST of the Mississippi – and it’s very expensive. So, until that changes, simulators will be severely limited in providing the necessary pilot=ATC skills. In short, not interactive ATC with simulators.
Older pilots often don’t have simulators (although some airline pilots may have them to shoot
ILS approaches, etc, which are things far above the student pilot or novice level). Most flight
simulators are used as toys, rather than teaching tools. Seen it a thousand times; gamers mostly
and not necessarily pilots or even student pilots.
Another issue is that once a newbie pilot is minted and who previously may have owned a
simulator, it goes away, usually to Ebay, or to a youngster, again, as a toy. Old (bold) GA pilots
often don’t even own a simulator and aren’t interested in them. I myself have tried to promote
and encourage thier use online on a few forums, but each time, I’ve been shot down by
seasoned pilots who reply back that simulators are a waste of time and effort (since most
don’t count toward flight training anyway).
I was hoping that MS2020 would be an improvement over previous simulation programs, but
so far, I am not impressed……Their graphics are nice, but everything else is so-so….and not
much better than we already have in P3D, FSX and X-Plane…..
Thoughts or comments?
I’m doing my best to promote aviation through “The Wright Stuff” flight simulation center. I’m sure we inspired many kids, but the cost is what comes up when I talk with their parents. Maybe it would help if more pilots got out there with flight simulators. My son and I started with setting up at Aviation Summer Camps for the Aviation Merit badge when he was in Scouts way back when.
Agree in principle.
Since 911, interest in aviation has waned significantly with the younger people.
That in turn, and the lack of access to simply seeing and watching airplanes up close,
has not helped to promote interest. One never gets to see airplanes, or even visit or go
inside (unless you have a ticket and can get thru the TSA crapola), nor does one even get
to talk to airline pilots.
To give an idea, when I was a kid here in Greenville, it was possible to walk up to the ticket
counter and get a “boarding pass” and then go out and “inspect” an airliner a few hours before
take off time (and before it boarded passengers). This was in the 1960s. Our local airport
serviced Eastern, Delta, Southern and Piedmont Airlines, DC-6s, Connies, Electras, Martin 404s
and DC-3s. Usually, the flight engineer was already onboard one of the bigger planes doing
his checks and giving us “tours”…..but, today, no such opportunities.
I was one of the lucky ones too. My father was an Air Force pilot flying transports. So, I often
had access to training flights (usually on Saturday mornings) both in the simulator and the
real airplane. The last airplane he flew regularly was the C-124, and I often got to go along.
It was a great inspiration to me to have “access” to the real thing.
Today, of course, we have youtube and flight simulators, but it’s not enough to keep interest in
the long term, especially for younger people.
Another problem with lack of interest is the lack of knowledge in STEM subjects. Much of this
material is not taught anymore to young people. Most today can’t even write their own names
in cursive, much less figure out numbers or formulas. So, its a toss up as to where we go from
here.
Agree that most flight instructors are in it for the opp to get an airline career. Most haven’t figured
out yet that that dream is on the back burner for now, or untll the airline industry recovers a bit
more. Meantime, there are a lot of pilots out there who are laid off (furloughed) until things
improve and their airplanes are either in long-term storage or pending sale or headed for scrap.
Either way, someone with authority has to start looking at this and try and figure out how to fix
it. So far, there does not appear to be any action on that front that I can see. There is no single
organization, school or agency that has stepped up to the plate to aggressively promote aviation
studies on a large scale. There are several agencies who “could” do this, but so far, they have not
acted. Presumably, it will take a good, hard, long war to get people interested again, such as what
happend during WW II when you had lot of 19 year olds flying large aircraft and learning the
ropes quickly. (My father flew C-47s in WW II; he got 2 weeks flight instruction on the C-47, was
assigned to Air Transport Command and told that he would learn the “rest” of flying on the job….).
Likely, history will repeat itself again sometime in the future. Maybe that will help cure the problem.
Sitting around waiting for it to fix itself won’t work. Aviation needs a catalyst — something to make
it happen.
My sentiments.
Astronauts today are no longer former test pilots with engineering degrees. They are scientists. There will not be very many young people who even aspire to such a career, and those who do will be studying something in the field of science, not beginning flying lessons. The military supplies very few pilots to the commercial aviation field. By the time a military pilot has served her or his initial commitment, she or he has more than ten years in, has likely been promoted to O-4, and will mostly likely stay in the military for at least a 20 year retirement. For some reason, young people today are not excited about aviation in general, and do not even consider it as a career, or as a hobby for their disposable income. My father and my uncles Ernie and Frank were all pilots, and growing up I always knew that I would learn to fly. Luckley I was able to turn that into a commercial career. But even then, after being furloughed for almost four years, I really did not begin to make “comfortable” money until my late 30’s. The young adults that are teaching or learning at our local flight school all aspire to an airline career, but only because they incorrectly believe that it is still glamorous and financially very rewarding. They do not understand that it will cost a lot to get all those ratings, and then they get to spend many years trying to log hours, especially twin-engine or turbine hours, in order to get a foot in the door at even a regional airline. As more pilots reach the 60 to 65 age and retire, yes, the airlines will have to hire, but the seniority list will now be a younger demographic, and the new hire will spend many years in the right seat. The pay scales are lower, and time away from home has increased. If you ask these younger folks what Charles Lindbergh was famous for, you are met with a blank stare. They do not really have a “love of aviation” that I believe most of my contemporaries have.
And, no, I do not have the answer. It just seems to me that our culture has changed, and parents do not encourage their children to become interested in aviation, whether as a career or as recreation.
And that is all I have to say about that!
In the early 70’s when I was a teenager I would ride my bike to my local airport to hang out. No one ever offered to take me for a ride. I would ask pilot’s about their planes but it never went anywhere. I worked at a car wash and never had the money for a lesson. Twenty years later I was a college graduate with a spouse and three kids. I joined a flying club and flew a Taylorcraft BC12. Four dollars per hour dry and fifteen dollars per hour for the instructor. It was through an EAA chapter. Eventually I purchased an Aeronca 11AC and restored it. I still own that plane plus a sleek composite aircraft with a glass panel.
EAA chapters are a great entry into affordable flying. I can’t count the number of people I’ve given rides. One will be starting Air Force flight training next year. If each of us can be the entry point for one new pilot, we can perhaps make a small difference.
To follow up on my previous post. flying, or learning to fly, or even to keep on flying, has become
a real, and expensive “racket”. For most, it’s an endless money pit.
Every single thing involving flying at any level, costs money, and usually, lots of it…..much of it
out of the reach of younger, potential student pilots. About the only thing that is “free” in flying
are youtube videos.
Today, flying, or learning to fly, is treated like a luxury. Learning to fly “should” instead, be treated
like a national emergency, given the potential shortage of future pilots. This “emergency” not
only affects us GA pilots, but will, sooner or later, affect the airlines and already affects the US
military. We know the Air Force is short about 2000 pilots and has even tried to recall some pilots
out of retirement. Some smaller airlines have shut down or cancelled flights due to a lack of available pilots. Many US airlines are now hiring foreign pilots, most notably from India and Honduras and other countries. Some are now pushing “women and minorities” as a fix, but that again, just narrows the “problem” down to specific race and gender groups of people, rather than look at the entire available population of availables. This may be good PR relations, but in the end,
the pay off will likely be very small (and as a result, a wasted effort and won’t alleviate the pilot shorages). The GA community complains that it’s numbers are dropping like a rock too. So, what are
we going to do about it?
I sometimes wonder why I pay annual dues to the AOPA and some of these other aviation
organizations. They don’t DO anything to help fix the problem. They tell us stories and try and
sell us insurance, but none seem to address the real pilot problems. Its a shame, because they
have all the resources at hand in which to act, but too many times, their efforts are geared toward
the older, gray-haired, aging pilots, rather than going after the new recruits.
I have gone to many FAAST, AOPA and local aviation group or club meetings in the last few years.
When I get there, what do I see? Old men mostly, but NEVER any young people. There is no
outreach to them; most do not even know these organizations exist. Aviation has become one of
the US’s best kept secrets!
One of the things that I like to “talk up” with young people are two things:
a. I teach Ground School. I invite young ones to come to my house and use my simulators.
I have two fo them. It gets them interested. Once interested, we can go from there. How many
pilots invite young people to come look air their airplanes?
b. I nearly always tell young people (and their parents) that most flight schools offer both
Discovery and Introductory flights. This is a good selling point and generates some interest.
Of course, these are expensive, so some get to go, and others do not.
When I was a kid, the local airport used to offer “penny a pound” flights to kids every so often.
This usually involved taking 3 or 4 kids up on a single engined airplane for a short flight around
the pattern, generally on a weekend. The pilots were all volunteer GA folks with their own
airplanes. This gave “exposure” to youngsters (teenagers especially) at an early age. It also
sent potential young pilots to flight schools.
Again, not being critical here, but trying to suggest ways to get young people pointed toward
the aviation field. If we don’t show them how and where, they will never know and will never
show up, and the problem will never get fixed.
b.
we going to do about it? It’s OUR problem (and the FAAs).
Along with all the other comments mentioned on this post, the FAA itself needs to clean up the
testing and certififcation process for new, would-be pilots. There is toooo much non-essential stuff
in the flight training program that most real pilots don’t use, or even need to know anymore. These
are essentially hindrances to newbies. An example would be the use of that E6B whiz wheel that
every DPE wants you to know how to use, but no real pilot uses once out of flight school and licensed.
While some items are “nice to know”, much of what is taught is non-essential stuff and nobody really
use this material or information, especially for short, GA flights. So, much of this kind of material is
“in the way” of needed and necessary flight training, jacks up expenses, wastes time, and in the end,
is useless in many cases. Its a turn off to new, prospective pilots.
So, what are we going to do when the new flying cars come into vogue in the next 10 years? Not
everyone who flies them will need to be a Private Pilot, so much of the garbage that is currently taught
in flight schools will neither be necessary, nor will it ever be used. Flight instruction needs to get real,
and teach the necessary and absolute material only, in order to make flying both attractive (and safe)
to prospective new pilots, and at the same time, reasonably affordable. I say reasonably affordable
because, too many young people start out learning to fly, but then drop out due to the expense (they run
out of money).
The next issue involves DPEs and their love of flunking or failing students for minor errors. DPEs are
very expensive and most charge additional fees to retests on a given topic. DPEs are generally
unmerciful, and this is a significant detriment to many folks who otherwise could probably get certified
on the first go around, but don’t (and they don’t always come back to retest). This is an FAA problem.
They make it deliberately difficult at all levels beginning with the written exam and then the oral and
practical. Again, some of this is highly detrimental to the potential new pilot, and serves to scare many
away from further attempts.
Talking up flying (learning to fly) as I do with many of the young people that I come in contact with,
there are two issues that always seem to come up:
a. Cost
b. Not being able to pass the PPL tests (fear factor, given what most of them know or have heard from
others).
The interest is there, but no one promotes it within the flying community. As one said earlier, most airports
these days are like prisons; there is nothing at any airport any more that is “welcoming” to the potential
new kid on the block. If he is inclined to “hang out” at the airport, even a local airport, he is often looked
upon with suspicion in the post 911 era by airport management, and totally ignored by local or resident
pilots. So, no help or encouragement there.
Likewise, there are no student “flying programs or clubs” around. True, we have the CAP and the
EAAs Young Eagles program, but neither offer any serious flying programs. CAP talks about it a lot,
but does little, and the EAA Young Eagles is nearly invisible to most. The Boy Scouts once had an
Air Explorer program, but with their recent bankrupties, that too has gone away.
I think Ground School should be taught as an elective in High School for those students who may be
interested. It needs to be taught at an early age in order to get potential future pilots interested. I suggest
High Schools because those institutions encompass a large, wide, diverse audience compared to the
CAP or EAA programs which have very small groups. Along with teaching Ground School, we need
more flying clubs and glider clubs, both of which, these days, are in short supply everywhere and for
which most young people do not have access.
Anyway, thoughts and comments appreciated. Lot of problems out there, but there are also a LOT of
possible fixes……
The problem isn’t any one thing … it’s EVERYTHING !
When I learned how to fly at a USAF Aero Club 50 years ago, a C150 was $9/hr wet and the instructor was $5/hr. I went from nothing to private pilot in four months flying ~75 hours which cost me ~$1K. Contrast that to today. The cost of living IS up but not by that much. I did all this as a young enlisted E-4/5. As I remember it, the Aero Club scheduling logs were always busy at the five bases that I flew from. AND … I went on to immediately accede to Commercial, Multi-engine and then instrument ratings on the GI Bill IN Service. I think all of those ratings cost me ~$2,500. Right there is one of the problems … there’s no GI Bill for flight training despite the need for Commercial pilots (until Covid).
At that time, a new C150 cost ~$8K as I remember it. A new average car could be had for <$4K and an expensive car for a bit less than the cost of the C150. Today, an equivalent SLSA would set one back about $150K or more. Escalades don't cost THAT much. And during that time, there were investment credits which made buying an airplane as an investment / tax credit possible even for non-pilots. The '75 C172 I've owned for 35 years started out its life that way. When built as an IFR Skyhawk II, it cost about $21K and hoards of them were stashed on ramps all over Kansas. I paid $13.5K for it when it was 10 years old. Today, a C172 will set one back TWENTY times what my airplane cost new and my airplane is worth four times what I paid for it because no one can afford new ones.
The decline of general aviation began with expiration of the tax credits for aircraft purchases, the end of VA funded flight training and was greatly impacted by ridiculous tort laws and court cases. Once everyone stopped building airplanes, everything stopped. IMHO, it's never really come back from the heyday of the late 70's.
Today, the FAA takes an adversarial or punitive role in nearly everything they do. Everywhere you turn, they're throwing rocks in the path of would be aviators. Sometimes, it's as simple as taking years to make a simple and logical decision (witness medical reform or aircraft certification or the FAR Part 23 rewrite). At some point, would be pilots just turn around and take their disposable income elsewhere. The FAA even had the promulgation of aviation out of it's mission statement. When it was combined with the DOT in 1967, another layer of bureaucracy was added to the mix … and nothing good came of it. The FAA needs to get out of the business of treating low end GA airplanes as commercial products.
We could distil the problems down into two broad issues … high costs and excessive bravo sierra which includes a intransigent FAA SO laser focused on safety or having things THEIR way that they've lost sight of the forest for the trees. Most FAA employees are more focused on making it to retirement than promulgation of aviation. The only way to bring down cost on every area of aviation is to build more airplanes thereby bringing economies of scale to bear. Light Sport WAS going to be a panacea but the ridiculous 600kg / 1,320 pound weight limit makes those airplanes unusable for anything but playing. The talk of MOSAIC is still years away … we MUST get the FAA off its butt and get that passed. Any Class I airplane that meets the litmus test for use by a pilot using BasicMed as their medical ought to be able to be built and certified much easier. Unless and until that happens, the continued decline of general aviation will continue. The numbers described herein are frightening.
I inhabit an airport near my summer home that I describe as "God's Airport." It is SO beautiful that it takes my breath away every time I drive in. Twenty years ago, there was a flurry of private hangar building which gradually came to a full stop. Today, almost every airplane and hangar is for sale because all the pilots are or nearing septuagenarian status and falling off the far end. On a nice VFR day, it's rare to see more than a couple of people flying and most of them are transients. We've only had one NEW body come in and he's near 60 years of age. THERE is your problem.
The beauty of solo flight is something that ought to be affordable to the masses. Today … that ain't so. I'm afraid we here are likely the last of the Mohicans.
Hey Philip, You took pictures of my PT17 at Oxford ME. in the late 90’s. I have one of those pictures on my wall as we speak.
I totally disagree you you. I see very little interest from the younger generations in flying and the interest they do have is playing with the glass cockpits. Maybe they would make good astronauts although most of the vehicles they use are controlled from the ground as aviation will be in the future.
One day I flew my Stearman to a local airport for lunch and there were about ten 172’s parked from a local aeronautical university also going to lunch. When I walked by the future pilots they asked me if the Stearman had a glass cockpit and they all started to laugh. I ate my lunch contently knowing that not one out of those twenty pilots could fly the Stearman or had the interest.
“Small airports have customarily served as the wellspring for young enthusiasts, but the luster at those fields of dreams has faded as evidenced by the disheartening scene of fewer would-be aviators hanging out”
Hang out where? 911 paranoia has airports looking like prison yards and observation decks at larger airports have generally not re-opened. With the general decline and near-universal self-serve fuel, FBO buildings are empty. Visitors are greeted with .
I find the Gen-X and Millennial folk to be quite interested in aviation. “How much does it cost to get a license?” “About $8,000.” . With average student debt among college graduates (the supposed future high earners) approaching $50,000 they’d have to be a bit stupid to throw down that kind of money for training, not to mention a minimum of $5k/year to stay current. Most aren’t stupid. And, needless to say, most non-college folk have resources and income prospects far less than back when factories were humming and high-wage union jobs were easy to come by.
Mars fantasies won’t help in an environment with a disappearing middle class, where even home ownership remains a distant dream for our youth.
Very honorable assessment!!! And the plain general aviation truth. Military experienced aviators may initially be at the Mars missions forefront we could believe.
Thank you for this – as a millennial pilot, the line about kids being into screens and participation trophies really does get old. As you have noted, there are many of us interested but many financial hurdles exist today that did not 40-50 years ago (and a friendly reminder for other readers – the millennials you speak of are in their 30s. We are generally not making TikTok videos with the Gen Z teens). The accessibility of college education has changed dramatically from when my mom went (free tuition at state colleges/tech schools, she paid for books and housing; a university degree would have had tuition but deeply discounted) to when I went (pony up! $$$).
People of my generation opt into hobbies with faster payoffs (model airplanes, boats, video gaming, etc.) because it is simple human nature. We want to get into doing something faster and at a lower cost to entry.
Last note, the home ownership comment really hits home. I make good money, I paid off my student loans early, I have been saving for emergencies, home down payments, and retirement since when I was in college and it still seems impossible.
Thanks for the feedback from the other side of 40. It amazes me how few Old White Guys have much peer-to-peer contact with young people, yet somehow know (especially the loud ones) all about them. My 29 yo son is very much in your situation. Having done pretty much everything “right” (according to boomer advice) and still struggled for a year (stocking grocery shelves) to get an even crappy real first post-college job @ $13/hr. The one thing he did “wrong” (according to boomer advice) was play video games. But, with skills learned through deep-dives into the tech and contacts make through his gamer buds, he now works for and is advancing with, a Silicon Valley style software firm! Still, economically a decade behind where I was at that age, it will be quite a while before he could reasonably fly, Mars mission or not. Gives me the sads to think about. Best wishes to all of you from an OWG.
Kids are into virtual reality not real life and there are fewer of them. And those remaining who want a real life experience are settling for drone flying. The boomers are aging out at the same time. Automation is taking hold and most see aviation evolving into flying machines without human pilots. For now, peace is breaking out and fewer military pilots are needed. The cost of an SLSA is still at the level of a luxury car so the argument that aircraft are too expenive is not central.
One of the best things we can all do today – to get more women and minorities and others into the aviation industry and/or the cockpit:
Call both your Senators and your Member of Congress and ask them to support having the DOD require that each military installation with a healthy MWR operation establish an Aero Clubs. Today the Air Force has only 17, the Navy 5 the Army only 2 .
Note MWR funds are non appropriated so the cost is not in their DOD budget FMI Neil Tampa 813-784-4669 C/T
Def on the right airway (LtCol?). Last century the German Luftwaffe oversaw initial entry glider/sailplane ops for Then pilot corps for military..that rolled over to civvy world at a later time.