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Expectation bias bites pilots

By NASA · September 15, 2021 ·

This is an excerpt from a report made to the Aviation Safety Reporting System. The narrative is written by the pilot, rather than FAA or NTSB officials. To maintain anonymity, many details, such as aircraft model or airport, are often scrubbed from the reports.

I listened to the ATIS and prepared to taxi out for the short flight from ZZZ to ZZZ1 in the new to me aircraft. We had come in a few hours earlier and had no adverse radio issues at all.

Reviewing the NOTAMs earlier I had filed away that the Tower was on part time status, most likely due to COVID, and would be closing in the afternoon.

After startup we called Ground and did not hear a reply. On our arrival they had told us to stay on the Tower frequency, so we tried that one. Still no response and we tried each a few more times. We listened to the ATIS again and noted that it talked about the Tower closing and that it was many hours old. The passenger in the right seat was also a very experienced ATP rated pilot and CFI and he told me “The Tower is closed.”

I remembered that possibility from my NOTAM search earlier in the day and asked him how he knew. He said it was on our Foreflight app and he heard XA30 on the ATIS. That seemed plausible to me, so we reverted to CTAF procedures, announced our taxi on the Tower frequency, and proceeded to Runway XX. I did glance up at the Tower, just in case, and saw no light gun signals but the Tower was soon out of view.

Part way to the runway we were intercepted by an airport vehicle and the driver pointed to his radio. I switched our radio to the second nav/com and was able to establish communications with the ATC facility.

In retrospect, this was a good example of a display of expectation bias. We fit the facts we were experiencing into the theory we had developed for what was going on and we were mistaken. I knew that when a Tower closes they say so on the ATIS broadcast, but being so old I thought maybe they had just forgotten to do so.

We both had XA30 in our minds as the closing time and discussed that it was now XB30, but we missed the fact that on the ATIS and the NOTAM XA30 was the opening time and it was UTC, not local time.

The radios worked fine on the way in, they must be working fine now, etc.

In reality we were wrong on all accounts and it is a good thing that we were able to establish ATC contact before taking off, which would have only complicated things for all.

Primary Problem: Human Factors

ACN: 1791196 

About NASA

NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) captures confidential reports, analyzes the resulting aviation safety data, and disseminates vital information to the aviation community.

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Comments

  1. james j burns says

    September 16, 2021 at 9:39 am

    ATP rated pilot, and he did not try the #2 radio.??

  2. RC says

    September 16, 2021 at 7:14 am

    Expectation bias has bitten us all,
    and not just in airplanes. I’m assuming the #1 radio crapped out as he said “the radio worked fine on the way in…”. then, “in reality, we were wrong on all counts”. That being the case, or whatever the case was, we can learn from his experience, hopefully.
    Never assume a bad radio until you’ve checked headset jacks/volume, all comm radio volume, etc…
    A little troubleshooting can go a long way.

  3. Steve says

    September 16, 2021 at 6:20 am

    Bottom line is “pilot error;” That is, it’s the pilot’s fault, regardless of who really drops the ball. I recognize the risk factors associated with uncontrolled airports, but my “expectation” is that see and avoid is better than relying on someone else doing their job — personal responsibility is hard to find anymore.

  4. Dan says

    September 16, 2021 at 5:40 am

    I understood the issue….the clue was in the title of the article; “expectation” bias

  5. Anon says

    September 16, 2021 at 4:22 am

    I don’t get it. You called tower, no answer.

    • Ed says

      September 16, 2021 at 5:21 am

      Radio #1 vs. Radio #2…..re-read the narrative.

    • Ken T says

      September 16, 2021 at 5:30 am

      Yeah, he’s not clear on what caused the problem. What’s the point of posting a NASA report if it doesn’t give a resolution?

      I’m left to guess that his radio wasn’t working. I think I would have tried COM2 (If I had one), my handheld, or call the tower landline on my cell phone before I gave up.

      I DO understand his point about expectation bias. I just wish he had clarified what the real problem was.

      • Steve says

        September 16, 2021 at 9:59 am

        I as well was not clear on the problem .

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