Honeywell’s 31st annual Global Business Aviation Outlook forecasts up to 8,500 new business jet deliveries worth $274 billion from 2023 to 2032, which is up 15% in both deliveries and expenditures from the same 10-year forecast a year ago.
Unveiled at the 2022 National Business Aviation Association Convention, the forecast aligns with industry reports of sold-out business jet production lines for the next several years, according to Honeywell officials.
“The business aviation industry is greatly benefitting from a wave of first-time users and buyers due in part to changing habits brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Honeywell Aerospace President, Americas Aftermarket Heath Patrick. “The business aviation sector is expected to recover to 2019 delivery and expenditure levels by 2023, which is much sooner than previously anticipated. Demand for new business jets is as high as we’ve seen it since 2015, and we expect high levels of demand and expenditures for new aircraft for several more years.”
According to Honeywell officials, concerns about exposure to pathogens and the reduction of premium class airline services helped drive recent growth in business and private aviation.
The survey found that among first time aircraft owners:
- Nearly 74% expect to keep the same level of flying in 2023 as they did in 2022, which is 10 percentage points above the whole fleet average. Only 4% expect to fly less in 2023.
- Nearly 85% of first-time users are in the Americas.
- Within the Americas, 80% of first-time buyers are in the United States, the rest mostly in Brazil.
- Business turboprops and small cabin jets each make up 35% of the fleet carrying these new users, followed by medium jets (18%) and large long-range jets.
Other key findings of the outlook include:
- New business jet deliveries in 2023 are expected to be 17% higher than in 2022. Expenditures are expected to be 20% higher.
- Five-year purchase plans for new business jets are up three percentage points compared with last year’s survey. This reaches 2019 levels and is equivalent to 17% of the current fleet.
- New jet deliveries and expenditures over the next decade are projected to grow at a 2% average annual rate, in line with expected worldwide long-term economic growth.
- One-third of those surveyed expect to fly more in 2023 versus 2022, 64% expect to fly at least the same amount, and 4% expect to fly less.
- Large, long-range aircraft classes are expected to account for more than 70% of all expenditures of new business jets in the next five years.
- Just 2% of those surveyed plan to dispose of an aircraft without replacement, which is half the rate gleaned in 2021.
- Five-year purchase plans for used jets remain high, totaling 28% of the current fleet and on par with last year’s results. High demand for used jets will keep pressuring the already low inventory of jets available for sale.
The fear-mongering around the China flu and resulting decline in the airline flying experience has surely changed many travel habits. We find that a leisurely drive on rural roads is far more pleasant and less costly than airline travel. The total travel time is not much different and we can take more along. I used to fly the airlines weekly, don’t miss a thing. Flown also in a few bizjets which is nice, but out of my league financially.