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What does the future hold for general aviation?

By Janice Wood · February 25, 2024 ·

Cirrus Aircraft’s SR22T was the best-selling piston airplane in 2023, with 355 delivered. (Photo by Cirrus Aircraft)

While 2023 was a “banner year” for general aviation, what does 2024 look like?

GA manufacturers delivered more than 4,000 aircraft last year, a sign of “strong, steady, and sustained growth,” according to General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) President Pete Bunce.

And that growth was across all segments of aviation, from pistons to turboprops and business jets to helicopters.

While 2024 looks to be another great year with “robust and growing order backlogs for all segments of aircraft,” the industry is not without its challenges.

Bunce noted that the general aviation industry “faces headwinds from ongoing supply chain issues, workforce shortages, uncertainty and unpredictability from global regulators, and short-sighted efforts aimed at curbing business and general aviation, particularly in Europe.”

“This industry depends on predictability,” he said during the association’s annual State of the Industry event, held Feb. 21, 2024, in Washington, D.C. “And we don’t have that across the globe.”

A big part of that unpredictability is that we still don’t have an FAA reauthorization bill in place.

Why is that important?

The reauthorization bill not only sets the FAA’s budget, it also includes the agency’s “marching orders” from Congress.

While the House passed its reauthorization bill in the summer of 2023, the Senate is moving much slower.

GAMA officials said they are pleased the Senate has finally gotten an FAA reauthorization bill out of committee, but there’s still work to be done as the Senate and House reconcile their bills.

“We need to get it done,” noted Chuck Wiplinger, president of Wipaire and chairman of the GAMA executive committee. “Running from one temporary authorization to another is not working.”

Another important issue for GAMA and its members is international validation, which means if something is approved by the FAA, other agencies, such as Transport Canada, EASA, or ANAC in Brazil, accept that approval.

“Now they are all just checking each other’s work,” he said, noting this delays innovation in the industry.

Innovation

And innovation is critical to general aviation — well, all of aviation, according to GAMA officials.

“General aviation is the innovation incubator for all of civilian aviation,” Bunce said.

That’s why efforts by several countries in Europe to curtail general aviation activity are harmful to not just GA, but all aviation, he added.

He pointed to a recent vote to tax private jets in Europe — which would have effectively grounded business aviation across the continent — that was only defeated by 18 votes.

“That’s scary,” he said.

Innovation is in general aviation’s “core and DNA,” added Allen Paxson, head of innovation for GE Aerospace.

He told the story of a recent visit to the Wright Brothers National Museum in Dayton, Ohio, where he saw the wind tunnel the brothers used to develop the fundamentals of flight.

“That’s a great reminder that technology and innovation are not going to pop up in aircraft with 300 seats,” he said. “It will start at the component level and in the smallest products.”

The Wright Brothers National Museum has more Wright artifacts on display than any other place in the world, including the 1905 Wright Flyer III, the only airplane designated a National Historic Landmark, the first practical flying machine, and what the Wright brothers considered their most important aircraft. (Photo courtesy Wright Brothers National Museum)

Unleaded Fuel

Of course any discussion of general aviation would not be complete without looking at the impact of the transition to unleaded fuel for piston aircraft.

In fact, it was two years ago at this annual event where then FAA Administrator Steve Dickson unveiled the EAGLE initiative, which stands for Eliminate Aviation Gasoline Lead Emissions, which spelled out the industry’s commitment to an unleaded GA by 2030.

In 2023, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued an endangerment finding, saying emissions from leaded avgas “contributes to air pollution that may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health and welfare.”

“That was not a surprise,” Bunce said. “We knew that was going to happen.”

But he emphasized that this is just the first step towards transitioning to unleaded fuel.

“The FAA, not the EPA, regulates aviation,” he said.

Self-serve fuel tanks at a GA airport. (Photo by Bill Walker)

It’s important that 100LL remains available as the industry continues its transition to unleaded fuel, GAMA officials emphasized.

While General Aviation Modifications Inc.’s G100UL has been approved through the STC process, the fuel is not yet available in the marketplace. And other fuels are still in the testing phases.

“It’s important that we test everything,” he said. “It goes beyond the aircraft and engines to fuel tanks and also the trucks and rail cars that will deliver the fuel.”

While it’s a daunting problem, it is one that will be solved, GE Aerospace’s Paxson added.

“We will solve this — it is what innovators do,” he said.

But it’s dangerous to be too hasty, noted Wiplinger.

“We are making progress, but it’s vitally important that the new fuels perform well and are safe. If we are too hasty, we will be inducing risk. We need to be thoughtful and smart. Testing takes time and we need to keep working on it.”

Electric Aircraft

Acknowledging that aviation is the most challenging mode of transportation to electrify, GAMA officials said that this is another challenge that “GA will work out.”

“The first electric aircraft will be small,” Ben Tigner, CEO of Overair, which is developing all-electric VTOL (eVTOL) aircraft. “They will also be far less noisy.”

In 2020, Pipistrel’s Velis Electro became the world’s first electric aircraft to receive full-type European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) certification.

And that is “key” to getting cities to accept electric aircraft, he added.

He noted that today’s batteries are not as effective as fuel to power aircraft, “but the technology is advancing,” he said.

And it’s advancing at a greater pace than ever before, said Paxson.

Until it does, using a hybrid of electric propulsion and gas “makes the entire mission more efficient,” he said.

Workforce

Another challenge facing the general aviation industry is finding enough employees.

“The success of this industry relies on the workforce,” said Wiplinger. “We need to showcase to future generations that jobs in general aviation are rewarding and fulfilling.”

It’s also important that the government include grants to grow the aviation workforce in the FAA reauthorization bill, Bunce added.

GAMA leaders noted that workforce issues are also plaguing the FAA. With a lot of retirements and turnover, the agency is dealing with many new hires that need training.

The GA leaders added it is imperative to introduce aviation as a career early to kids to expand the “breadth and depth” of the industry’s workforce.

“We need to expose all kids to the aviation industry, as this industry will help create the future,” said Henry Brooks, president of Power & Controls, Collins Aerospace, and GAMA vice chairman.

About Janice Wood

Janice Wood is editor of General Aviation News.

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Comments

  1. Will Callen says

    October 7, 2024 at 1:08 pm

    In the late 70s it wasn’t uncommon for upwards of 18000 GA aircraft deliveries in a given year and for over a decade average 70-80s at least100,000 ga aircraft were delivered . I’m not normally a pessimistic individual but if GA manufacturers don’t start getting prices down and find incentives to pull in buyers I think it will get past the point of no return and ultimately kill general aviation. Example: quotes for factory rebuilt 160 hp engines are at a staggering $48k and if you don’t have a rebuildable Core you can tack on $23k onto the cost.

  2. JimH in CA says

    February 26, 2024 at 9:43 am

    Looking at the data a bit, I noted that the ‘4,000’ aircraft sold is world wide of all classes of aircraft.
    The USA, GA piston sales were just over 1,100 aircraft. World wide, Cirrus sold 790, Cessna about 290 and Piper about 280. so the wealthy pilots are buying Cirrus and the flight schools are buying Cessnas and Pipers.
    The rest to the 250k pilots in the US are swapping used aircraft, which are getting unaffordable now too with prices in excess of $100k.

    My thoughts are the the future of GA piston aircraft are experimental and some light sport, especially of the current regs are relaxed.

  3. Marc Miller says

    February 26, 2024 at 8:32 am

    GA has gotten way too expensive. Yes, you can still buy an aircraft for $40K on Trade-a-Plane, but rentals in my area for a C-172 are at $200/hour (wet). Ownership implies you need hangar space, and unless you store your aircraft two hours away from a metro area, hangar rent is sky high, too. Because of this and because I’m getting older, I’m no longer aviating.

  4. Wylbur Wrong says

    February 26, 2024 at 6:48 am

    So part of the UL drive is that parts of engines may have to be changed. So what will this cost? How many engines does the FAA require for an STC to replace valves and valve (seats as an example)?

    We don’t know, because there is no transparency with the FAA. I’m hoping that MOSAIC solves that problem because someone put in their comments that the FAA needs to state what the process is for engine certification. You can’t do a biz plan when you don’t know what the FAA taxes (costs) are going to be to get to certification. And once it is plain, it may be obvious that the FAA tax for certification needs an FAA overhaul. I think they may be well beyond their TBO.

  5. Kent Misegades says

    February 26, 2024 at 6:05 am

    Why not ask readers their thoughts? I’d bet they will be a lot different than those from GAMA, which appears to be focused on turbine aircraft and piston aircraft that sell for turbine aircraft prices. Sport Aviation is on life support due to our declining economy. While the November election might help put us back on the right track (which means of course Trump is back in the WH), $34T in debt and a large percentage of the US population that has refused to go back to work after the Wuhan Flu fiasco, coupled with an invasion of illegal aliens across our borders, it is hard to be optimistic about the future of our nation, let alone sport aviation. The one hope is “soft secession”, sovereign states like Florida and Texas that are putting more distance between themselves and The Swamp.

    • DeWitt Whittington says

      March 2, 2024 at 3:20 pm

      For most aircraft engines 180hp and less, which encompass most training aircraft about 65% of privately owned aircraft can use under an EAA or Petersen STC ethanol free Hi Test auto fuel safely. The major problem is there are very few airports that sell the fuel. Local to Richmond, VA, the Hanover County Airport uses auto fuel with ethanol with their Tecnam 2-place training aircraft with Rotax engines but will not sell it to based or transient aircraft with proper STCs.

    • Glen says

      March 3, 2024 at 4:51 am

      Well, if Trump is elected then the economy might go into a stall. His rancor and meanness are scary to many. If he tears apart the government, it might be the tipping point to national decline. The debt is due to Presidential tax cuts, to keep the person in office popular. Be careful what you wish for President.

  6. Jim Roberts says

    February 25, 2024 at 9:36 am

    This is a well-written piece outlining many of the future promises and challenges for GA. Sadly, most of the challenges come from dysfunctional government entities, congress being the foremost stumbling block. This confederacy of dunces is followed closely by cumbersome FAA processes, and the Green lobby which is generally opposed to private aviation, on the grounds of its carbon footprint. As the early-20th century humorist, Will Rogers observed, “There are men running governments who shouldn’t be allowed to play with matches.”

    • Glen says

      March 3, 2024 at 4:53 am

      Maybe but voters keep the dunces in office….that needs explaining.

      • JimH in CA says

        March 3, 2024 at 3:49 pm

        It would be nice to keep the bashing of politicians out of aviation comments.
        I see little connection to what laws change vs the cost of flying GA. ?
        [ but there looks to be a connection between the ‘covid/ stimulus payments’ and the inflation in the cost of GA aircraft..!!]

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