Thanks to a solid effort by the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), I have data that can be used to assess the number of recreational aircraft around the world. That organization is significantly focused on business aircraft, but did include all levels of aircraft in their country-by-country review.
Whatever the actual level of accuracy — GAMA is wholly dependent on the data it received from various aviation authorities in each country — GAMA’s data is some very useful info and I am in their debt for the information discussed in this review.
In addition to GAMA having to use whatever each country reported, the methods of reporting were not consistent. For one noteworthy example, several countries listed as their smallest aircraft those weighing 5,700 kilograms (12,540 pounds), which represents far larger aircraft than your typical four-seat GA aircraft and certainly any recreational aircraft.
Many European countries listed “microlights” or “ultralights,” two common descriptions for aircraft that commonly look like Light-Sport Aircraft in America. However, Germany, home to many microlights or ultralights, oddly did not report this category. The Czech Republic, home to many LSA producers, was also not reported. Therefore, it’s probably wise to consider my following analysis with a degree of caution.
Regardless of its reliability, this is the best compendium I’ve seen, so thanks again to our friends at GAMA.
To provide some perspective, let’s look at certified GA aircraft first. From its peak in 1978, U.S.-manufactured GA deliveries have fallen dramatically, by 93% from 14,398 single engine piston aircraft in 1978 to 986 in 2014.
Fortunately, since 2000 the continuing drop is less severe. For example in 2006, worldwide GAMA members reported delivering a new millennia peak of 2,513 aircraft; the decline to 986 is a drop of 61%.
The ’60s and ’70s were clearly the “golden era” for GA piston airplane production. Accounting for this drop, beside pilot population decreases (see below) and airplanes lasting so long — the average age of four seater is 38.2 years old — most competition likely came from non-flying activities.
Among aircraft choices, Experimentals in the last two decades have grown 143% to nearly 25,000 aircraft. LSA in fully built or kit form add to GA’s competition, although much less so partly as Experimentals have been around much longer.
Overall, the overall GA fleet has held reasonably steady, declining from a peak of piston airplanes in FAA’s registry of 197,442 in 1984 to 137,655 in 2013, a drop of about 30%. When you add kit-built aircraft and LSA, the total fleet numbers look relatively stable.
In geographic location of the U.S. aircraft fleet, the conventional knowledge about the three biggest states still holds, with California having 26,141 aircraft registered, followed by Texas at 22,851, trailed by Florida at 18,162. The next closest state (Washington) has barely half the Florida count … but see below for where pilots live.
The number of airmen — pilots with certificates — explains some of the aircraft delivery decreases.
From a peak in GAMA’s numbers of 827,071 licensed pilots in 1980 to the current number of 593,499, I calculate a drop of 28% over 34 years. Keep in mind that nearly 47,000 of those airmen are not Americans, but foreign nationals holding a U.S. certificate.
Private pilots have dropped by 51%, but many of those probably went on to higher ratings as ATPs grew by 120% in the same period to account for 26% of all certificate holders. No doubt related to that, CFIs grew by 67% to become 17% of all certificate holders and pilots with Instrument ratings also increased by 18%.
Those holding a Sport Pilot certificate now totals 5,157, reported GAMA, while Recreational Pilot peaked at 343 in 1999 and has since shrunk to only 220 certificates. Neither of the last two amount to even 1% of all license holders, though the other certificate categories have several decades of history the newer ones lack.
You might lament the Sport Pilot certificate numbers. Certainly, many in the GA world thought Sport Pilot was single-handedly going to grow the pilot population a lot more. While I do not believe that was ever a realistic expectation, here’s some good news.
Most pilots I know think the pilot population is graying quickly and that we may be in danger of running out of pilots. GAMA’s stats say otherwise. The biggest single category may be what you expect, with those aged 50-64 counting 179,277 pilots, but the surprising second largest segment is close behind. Those aged 20-35 years old number 173,396 pilots. The 35-50 cohort is much smaller, perhaps as they are busy raising families and paying for mortgages and college educations for their kids.
In the top 10 states for pilot populations, California still leads with 59,213, but Florida has climbed into the number #2 slot at 52,976 — and the state is number one in flight instructors with 9,592 — followed by Texas with 49,614 pilots, Washington state (18,665), Georgia (18,131), Arizona (18,029), Illinois (16,307), New York (15,949), Pennsylvania (15,187), and Ohio (15,137).
Now let’s look at LSA-type aircraft elsewhere in the world. I have reported that the rest of world accounts for large numbers of “sport” or “light” airplanes, much more than the USA. This is definitely not the case in the certified GA aircraft world where America dominates. As mentioned above, the method of counting is all over the place — and in saying that I mean no disrespect to GAMA’s Herculean effort nor the stats provided by reporting aviation authorities. Nonetheless, the variable reporting methods makes it difficult to come up with exact numbers. I plodded through chart after chart and here’s my analysis.
Where I could identify microlights, ultralights, or LSA types, I calculated 19,613 aircraft in what might be called “greater Europe” (mostly EU countries). Making an informed guess of at least 4,000 “microlight/ultralight” for Germany — which country, as noted above, did not supply a detailed value for this category — and adding non-European countries such as South Africa (6,072 including “Sport, Recreational, and Experimental”), Canada (7,125 “ultralights”), and Brazil plus Asian countries (small counts for several nations), I make a best estimate of about 40,000 LSA-type aircraft outside the USA. This figure includes estimates for Sweden and Switzerland that did not break out their reporting. Also included in the 40,000 count is England, with strong numbers of 4,029 “microlights” and 3,269 “Fixed Wing Aeroplanes of more than 750 kilograms” (1,650 pounds).
SPECIAL NOTES: France is singular reporting 8,476 “ultralights” (counted in the 19,613 number), the largest of any country, while Germany deserves separate mention for having 7,657 sailplanes plus 3,357 motorgliders — by far the most of any country in the world — though they are not LSA types.
In summation, my earlier reporting suggests that while certified aircraft and the pilot population are in a long-term decline (a fairly well-known assessment), sport and recreational aircraft, including kit-built, continue to expand. Given entry by emerging aviation countries like China and India with their immense populations, the expected increase of the light, sport sector looks to remain aviation’s growth sector.
Then, we have the developing LSA 4.0 group, but that’s another story …
to Lonnie Averkamp says about GA flyers is right but not complete. Yes there is that attitude, but there is as much friendship as that crap. I have always said if we do not hang together or we hang separately.
With the government squeezing all of us piolets GA & ultralights piolets in a few years we will all be gone.
About 11 or 12 years ago I had a redone ultralight & went to plum island witch this airport that had both GA
& ultralights. I asked if I could get some instructions on flying ultralights , and this man said what do I want to do with those things. He said I should get a real certificate & fly real planes. I did not know they were trying to get the ultralights out of that airport. Well I have found many more positive than that kind of attitudes. I know that there used to be 2 seat ultralights Till the government made them go away. I have found many of the people who lost there medical Are now flying ultralights. I know wonder what will happen to ultralights when ads-b come in.
Prior to the LSA Rule, I was an ultralight flight instructor, and I was ferrying a two-place Challenger from being purchased in Michigan to Milwaukee. Flying well away from Chicago’s airspace, I stopped at a non-towered airport in northern Illinois for fuel.
While I was tying down the Challenger, a pilot walked toward the FBO. I smiled and waived to him, and he shot me a look that said that I was absolute Crap.
Maybe I should have pulled out my Private Pilot’s License and waived it at him, in order to attain Human Status.
I have come to the conclusion that I don’t-much like G/A pilots. They have an attitude of a “pecking order” and I don’t need to spend $85.00 per hour to be in their club. I have since let my Physical and Currency lapse.
Additionally, I have left the AOPA. Why should I spend my money to defend the flying privileges of people like the aforementioned individual?
I enjoyed the article and the commentary. Have you looked at GAMA for the latest forecast in Light Sport Aircraft?
Thanks!!!
The gorilla in the room is the government. They have made so many regulations it is like jumping through
hoops to do any thing. The only way to open this to get back to normal is to challenge every thing. Every
rule that make no sense, every regulation that stifles flying. Question? How many rules & regulations were in aviation in the early 70’s compared to now. Now I know rules are needed & that keep us safer but over regulation is what I am talking about. Some times I thing the Gov. writes rules to keep them selves in office. So if they keep up this flying thing we like will be gone & they will be out of business.
It’s always interesting to see the comments generated by articles in General Aviation News and “The Pulse…” eNewsletters.
I have three things to add to my article and to those commenting on it:
(1) I recently did an update that pushes the total number of light, sport, and/or recreational aircraft to around 50,000 worldwide. That’s a substantial share of all civil aircraft flying anywhere. Read the update at http://www.ByDanJohnson.com (see the June 1, 2015 post).
(2) Many folks confuse Light-Sport Aircraft with the Sport Pilot certificate (formerly called a license). They are not the same. So, the lower number of SP cert holders does not necessarily mean anything about the number of LSA, most of which are operated by someone with a Private Pilot certificate or higher but who may not wish to maintain their medical.
(3) Yes, the highest end of LSA are fairly expensive at $125,000-175,000 (though that is half or less the cost of a new certified GA airplane). If you must have a carbon fiber speedster with autopilot and all the other bells and whistles, you may want to consider partnership to contain the cost. However, several very nice aircraft are available for a much less price and if they are still too much, you can buy some very satisfying Part 103 ultralights for under $20,000. The old gear-head line goes, “Speed costs money; how fast do you want to go?” If you can be content with a slower, less well-equipped aircraft, several new choices await your further investigation.
I appreciate everyone who reads my articles and I’ll keep writing more!
I think that flying has become truly a rich man’s sport. I realize that it has always been cost that has kept a lot of people out of flying. However, I think because incomes of middle income families has not grown significantly the impact there has probably been the greatest. There is that portion of middle income people, the so called “upper level” middle income earners that still don’t spend money too freely these days. There are so many other things to worry about that have shot up in price. Not the least of which is college tuition and the cost of automobiles.
I for one am a six figure income earner with two children and a modest home. I have only 10 hours of lessons under my belt. That was 5 years ago. After ten hours and some necessary equipment I was already ~$1800 down. Today that would be doubled. I would love to get my license. It has been a lifelong dream. I am 47 years old and it would be a great time to be flying, However, I probably will never do so at this point since the cost keeps rising so dramatically. My children will be in college, one on three years, the other in five years. By the time they finish I’ll be in my mid fifties and that dream of flying will have past.
If there is a solution to the GA pilot “shortage” then that solution must be a way to decrease the cost of obtaining a license.
Besides the dismal statistics for GA worldwide overall, this article is also a negative indictment of Sport Pilot. While a case could be made that LSA (or LSA equivalent) airplane production worldwide isn’t too bad, seeing just over five thousand US light sport pilots after more than 10 years is nothing to be bragging about. That’s less than 1 light sport pilot per month per US State. Or … that more than 100 LSA companies are vying for their business … give us all a break, Dan.
Of course, there are likely more due to the fact that greying “real” pilots are fearing for their medicals and flying as sport pilots as they run out their aviation ‘clocks.’ Add to that the totally ridiculous cost of light sport airplanes (vs their usefulness) which turns off many. Also, the inability to actually rent an LSA once a rating is obtained in most places.
The bright spot in the foray is precisely LSA 4.0. In fact, if I were a light sport manufacturer, I’d be pushing for an increase in the MGTOW of an LSA 2.0 to something nice and useful … say 2,000 pounds. The increase in weight allowed would make a mighty useful ASTM complaint airplane and justify the cost. With some larger manufacturers moving to LSA 4.0, families of airplanes might bring in more business? If the FAA would ever get off their bureaucratic butts and pass FAR Part 23 rewrites (along with the institution of the ‘new’ Primary aircraft airworthiness category), LSA manufacturers might find new business and more people might be apt to part with their money to buy one for private use.
Wow! “Real pilot”. I guess my over 1000 hours of flying Taylorcrafts, Cubs, and Aeronca aircraft with my Sport Pilot ticket since 2006 makes me something less than a “Real Pilot”. Please do tell me what it’s like to be a “Real Pilot”.
I ‘knew’ that my comment on “real” pilots would garner attention … and it was intended to be so. Not necessarily negative or derogatory, mostly just different. As Dan Johnson says in his addendum (2) above, pure sport pilots hold a CERTIFICATE and real pilots hold a LICENSE. HE says “they are not the same” and I agree with him.
Light sport appeals to the greying pilots because that’s all those “hardcore” types have available to them … legally. THAT’s why they’re who you mostly see at Sebring or other light sport venues. As Tom Haines said in ‘Waypoints’ in the June 2015 issue of AOPA Pilot, there are 500,000 people who hold pilot licenses but are not actively flying. That’s ALMOST as many people who hold licenses and are. Under the right circumstances — can you spell an intransigent FAA bureaucracy? — those folks could be courted into returning to active flying status.
Frankly, I know MANY pure sport pilots who know only enough to be dangerous. I know some who shouldn’t be flying … period. Can they pull back on the stick and make the houses get smaller … of course. But there’s a mighty big difference between someone flying serious airplanes in serious ways and those flying lightweight 1320 pound (or less) airplanes — some without electrical systems — on nice days under VFR only.
Either way, I give credit to anyone who takes the time, spends the money and obtains any sort of certificate or license.
To Dan: LAMA ought to be pushing like hell, including banding together with other alphabet soup organizations to get the stupid 600kg / 1320 pound weight limit raised to a more reasonable level. If the Primary aircraft certification category and/or the ability to fly a simple four place airplane like a C172 as a light sport pilot under day VFR were to pass (PBOR II), you’d see a much improved interest level in the whole thing. But as it stands, $150K and up for a decent two place Light Sport aircraft is ridiculous. That’s why production numbers (in the US) are so dismal.
I seriously considered several LSA airplanes recently and have discounted them all. Nothing can compare to the two GA airplanes I already own and which I’d be hard pressed to get even half of the money necessary to get one new LSA if I wanted it.
Great information, and much Appreciated. But GA pilots need to know the whole truth.
These statistics don’t tell the whole story, or give a real and accurate picture of GA’s absolute implosion over the past two decades, that still is continuing to this very day. Much of this GA demise is being fueled directly or indirectly by inappropriate government (FAA) policies for aviation in general, and low end GA in particular. The “Third-Class” medical mess, 2020 ADS-B fiasco, and difficulties with OEM product liability, and STCs and “Field approvals” in demise are but a minor symptoms of GA’s real plight.
Just as an example, in Washington State, this past, year American Avionics, one of the country’s largest and leading avionics shops in operations for decades apparently is going out of business. The unique and large Aviator Store in Seattle at Boeing Field, one of the only few large “walk-in” aviation stores in the country went out of business. In a recent informal survey of which FBO’s in the Seattle area now can offer training for the ATPC, the result was essentially NONE. The number of FBO’s offering rental aircraft at the regions airports has dwindled to a very few, and the prices are extremely high, and restrictions on use many. You can all but forget trying to rent a seaplane for anything but dual instruction. Hangar rents are going sky high, driven by municipal airports seeking “highest-and-best” land use, or more space for more profitable high end turbine aircraft. The wait for a hangar at one local airport was 15 years. It took four years to get to the top of the hangar list at another airport. All but corporate GA is being completely driven out of Boeing field, with new construction for cargo airlines, and the BBC (Billionaire Boy’s Club) flying high end business jets, as one local aviation parts supplier store calls them. To even stop at KBFI now with a C172 incurs an expensive landing fee, even to just drop off or pick up a passenger for about 2 minutes.
Regarding those many thousands of remaining standard ticket airplanes cited in the article, airports all over the region are full of corroding dying hulks, parked in end-of-life tie-down spots that will likely never fly again. 2020 ADS-B will further assure that outcome. Airports are under stress all over the country, with many closing. Good mechanics are getting very hard to find, and maintenance rates if you can find a good mechanic are going out of sight. It cost me nearly the original sale price of my aircraft brand new, just to recently put in a 406MHz beacon. So yes, LSAs and experimental aircraft are increasing, and that is helpful. But look further at the costs of even those vehicles. Few can even afford LSAs. So unless we in GA help turn around very foolish FAA policies for a wide range is issues from OEM certification, to airman qualification, to a failing NextGen designs that will unnecessarily cost us a fortune, the future of GA in the US below the level of high end turbine aircraft, using top dollar BizZet FBOs, is truly bleak.
D.JONSON DID A REPORT ON THE BIG PICTURE OF AVIATION. TOP DRAWER EFFORT