In a new blog post for the NTSB’s blog, “Inside the NTSB’s General Aviation Investigative Process,” John O’Callaghan, a National Resource Specialist for Aircraft Performance, which is government-speak for a technical expert in the aerodynamics and flight mechanics of aircraft, writes about how hard it is to see other aircraft while in flight.
He uses two high-profile accidents to illustrate his point: The mid-air collision between an F-16 and a Cessna 150 over Monck’s Corner, South Carolina, and a mid-air between a Sabreliner and a Cessna 172 in the busy traffic pattern at Brown Field in San Diego.
“When it comes to collision avoidance in VMC, we wink at risk management (“see-and-avoid!” “Keep your head on a swivel!”), when the reality is that we rely in great measure on luck,” he writes. “It’s a big sky, and it would be hard to hit somebody if you tried. The odds are against a collision, but on occasion, disaster strikes.”
Read the full post here.

It makes a good case for ADSB-out. Sure it is a big sky but the cone of perception of the human eye is small, very small and needs help. Pilots will be the first to tell you that there is SO much sky to watch for that it is impractical to rely totally on the eye and itshelper the brain. Even when radar tells us there is an X Cessna or a Y B-747 at our ‘ten o’clock position two miles” we still have to strain to find it. WE need help and it is available.
What a terrible shame, and it continues to happen almost daily. As big as our skies are, one would think there is almost no chance of one colliding with another, but as it appears most of these accidents appear to be caused by a combination of wrong doings. Just like hearing about two very large ships colliding with one another in the middle of the ocean with all the modern navigation tools we presently have, is that mere speculation or mere stupidity???This is all these people do on a ship is navigate and they screw it up, badly. What is the alleged excuse for these actions?? Like some people saying it’s perfectly o.k. to fly an airplane in today’s airspace without having a radio on board! Adding to the already stupid people more reasons why they intentionally want to take someone’s life, is beyond comprehension. Yes, and these people vote! God have mercy.
All the referenced aircraft in the blog were equipped with radios.