Boeing released its 2018 Pilot & Technician Outlook at EAA AirVenture Oshkosh 2018, projecting demand for 790,000 pilots over the next 20 years.
This represents double the current workforce and the most significant demand in the outlook’s nine-year history, according to Boeing officials.
The demand is being driven by an anticipated doubling of the global commercial airplane fleet — as reported in Boeing’s Commercial Market Outlook — as well as record-high air travel demand and a tightening labor supply. This year’s outlook also includes data from the business aviation and civil helicopter sectors for the first time.
“Despite strong global air traffic growth, the aviation industry continues to face a pilot labor supply challenge, raising concern about the existence of a global pilot shortage in the near term,” said Keith Cooper, vice president of training and professional services, Boeing Global Services. “An emphasis on developing the next generation of pilots is key to help mitigate this. With a network of training campuses and relationships with flight schools around the globe, Boeing partners with customers, governments and educational institutions to help ensure the market is ready to meet this significant pilot demand.”
Boeing offers the Pilot Development Program — an accelerated training program that guides future pilots from early stage ab-initio training through type rating as a first officer — to help operators meet their growing pilot needs. Boeing also helps operators improve crew efficiency with tools that optimize resources and minimize disruption.
Despite the commercial pilot demand forecast holding nearly steady, maintenance technician demand decreased slightly from 648,000 to 622,000, primarily due to longer maintenance intervals for new aircraft.
Collectively, the business aviation and civil helicopter sectors will demand an additional 155,000 pilots and 132,000 technicians.
Demand for commercial cabin crew increased slightly from 839,000 to 858,000, due to changes in fleet mix, regulatory requirements, denser seat configurations and multi-cabin configurations that offer more personalized service. In addition, 32,000 new cabin crew will be required to support business aviation.
We have been automating computers systems for decades now, because we know that computer operators will make mistakes, particularly in a critical situation. And I am talking about the ones for banks, credit card companies, stock traders, manufacturers, etc.
“It is impossible to make anything foolproof, because fools are so ingenious.” — Robert Heinlein
There is a saying that the last 20% of a project takes the most time to write and debug. Yet, here we are 50 some years after the S/360 and the operating system “OS/360” has gone through several iterations to become “z/OS” today. And that system still fails even though the “z” in its name is for zero down time. And even with automated operations software running to automatically handle needed commands in such failure modes. (Disclosure — I’ve worked on three of these automated operations products in different capacities and have written many rules for automating responses to critical problems.)
So as soon as you can get an autopilot with computer feeds for where we are and where we need to be that can handle 30Kt x-winds with gusts to 45Kts, you might be able to replace the pilots. And that problem happens more often than most think.
And then there is the GPS failure caused by an x5 level of coronal ejection.. NO GPS approaches available, only ground based approaches are available, and the airport you are going to, doesn’t have one because their ILS is OOS for maint. Ok, your system also has inertial guidance, but that decays in accuracy over time without external inputs…
But how do you handle the stopped up pitot tubes — where the system is being fed conflicting information? Humans can figure it out, especially if they use correct and proper CRM.
How do you deal with a control failure where one has to use differential engine power to turn, and then set up an appropriate sink rate? What do you do when an engine flies apart and causes damage to the plane such that one now has a “split” flap/slats problem?
We can only dream up so many lunatic problems — the ones that MBA based management says will never happen, and yet they have actually occurred. Humans have the ability to correlate strange situations and determine how to make it work and many times, there are survivors of the situation because of pilots that could figure it out.
Maybe we will get to the point where a computer can handle it in 99.99999% of the situations. But it is that 0.00001% that will result in catastrophic loss of human life where you will really wish you had had a person on that plane with at least 5000 hrs of real flying. You see, once you automate the pilots out of the cockpit, you will build larger aircraft. And with 500+ passengers and some odd failure over a city on an approach how many buildings can you knockdown with that behemoth? And the cost of a two person crew in the cockpit would be a pittance compared to what the never will ever happen crash will cost.
This is Good news for all aspiring Pilot’s all over the Country
How do we make it Achievable in having 790,000 Pilot’s over the next 20 years who are Boeing(B737,B747,B787 Dreamliner) and Airbus(A350,A380) lovers?
Funds raising/Scholarships/Aids and Grants should be put into consideration, for the ones who don’t have enough funds to meet up Pilot Training Fees whose daily Dream is to be a Pilot?
If these incentives are put into action then we can achieve 790,000 Pilot’s(Male and Female) in the next 20years, which will automatically boost the Aviation Industry.
But if not, achieving 790,000 Pilot’s over the next 20years is just a MIRAGE.
If the autonomous taxi services expand like some think, then there may be some fewer commercial pilots needed, but the need for technicians to keep the machines flying will always be there. The change going on in the airlines for more shorter haul legs will probably be met with less costly electric powered craft. Some of those might be autonomous, but again someone has to maintain the systems and that’s likely to be human technicians keeping the machines running. Even with the help of automation, the need for human techs is likely to be a need for quite some time, if not always.
The future flight crew will consist of a pilot and a dog. The pilot to observe and the dog to bite him if he tries to touch anything.
All this wonderful automation is truly exhilarating to fossils like me who, despite adapting to glass cockpits early, still hearken back to circular slide rules and wind triangles and mental pictures of paper charts as the pretty lines and colored waypoints scroll across the screen. It’s wonderful until the computers decide to take a break, as I wrote in Air&Space/Smithsonian 25 years ago, then it’s “back to flying airplanes like God and Orville and Wilbur intended. And there’s no computer anywhere that can do that.”
I sure hope the automation isn’t being managed by automatons.
FMA (Flying Musicians Association) is making a difference and a dent in the pilot supply by identifying and assisting student musicians in their pursuit of flying. Learn more at http://FMAsolo.org.
Twenty years from now there will still be pilots.
Automation will NOT take over, you watch.
good day. may i know how to send the application? its requirements? thank you
Hi would love to become a pilot, I come from a semi rural area but do not know how to start, where to apply, and who gives bursary to study
Please help
Twenty years from now there will be no pilots.
Automation will take over you watch.
Because you are an aerospace engineer and an industry insider and here delivering privileged information… No offense my friend, but pilots are to stay
Highly doubt it. A recent study showed only 17% of people would be ok flying with no pilot behind the controls. Thats primarily because of lower ticket costs. I give it 50+ years before Airlines are fully autonomous.