One of the wisest men I’ve ever known had almost no formal education. He never completed high school. If family lore can be believed, he never got as far as the fourth grade. Yet he achieved the American Dream by middle age and spent his later years in leisure.
My paternal grandfather was a piece of work. He earned a stable but unremarkable wage throughout his career in the newspaper industry, working his way up from a printer’s devil position at the Clearwater News to the respectable post of production manager at the venerable Hartford Courant 50 years later.
Serious and dedicated to a career he never really enjoyed, he knew how to set a goal and achieve it. He only financed one car in his entire life. All the others he paid for in cash. Not that he was wealthy. He was never that. His talent was in knowing how to hold onto a dollar and use it to its greatest effect. He was Dave Ramsey before Dave Ramsey.
One particular lesson he taught me sticks out in my mind lately, more than it ever has before. My granddad was well into his career when the Great Depression walloped the nation. In his early 30s, career minded and ready to move up in the world, he was the perfect target for the economic collapse that laid so many low and led to the downfall of many a minor titan of Wall Street. Yet, he muddled through. It might even be said he came out ahead in the long run.
Not everybody was crushed by the Great Depression, he told me. In truth, some folks came out of that period better off than they went into it.
If you weren’t over-extended, if you resisted the urge to get rich by investing money you didn’t have, essentially taking out loans to gamble with, you just might be fine. Granddad was. The home he and my grandmother scrimped to buy in that era is now worth well over $1 million. It’s not the Taj Mahal, by any means. But it was a darned impressive achievement for a man who started out living on dirt roads, with no electricity or running water.
Today, we’re seeing economic challenges befall our friends, family, and neighbors due to a turn of events few of us saw coming. If he were here today, my granddad might tell us the nature of the bad thing is immaterial.
Bad times are coming. Be prepared for them, whatever they are. Avoid excessive debt. Squirrel away enough in savings to last a while should the economy turn. And remember that bad times end. Look to the future and behave accordingly. There are opportunities to better your life hidden in every situation.
In aviation, we’ve seen the good times and the bad, just like every other industry. Where our industry differs from most is in the cost of the equipment. Golf can be expensive in the long term, but a set of clubs can be had for a couple hundred bucks. Airplane ownership, on the other hand, is well out of reach for the average Jane or Joe America.
Or is it?
While scanning the classified ads in my latest edition of General Aviation News, I found a T-Craft listed for just $15,000. A less expensive, more enjoyable time-builder or personal runabout doesn’t come to mind.
Nearby that listing a Stinson 108 was selling for less than $30k. One of my personal favorite GA aircraft, the Stinson 108 is a cushy, solid, well-built machine that I have seriously considering buying more than once.
In either case, those aircraft would likely hold their value quite well. Being unpressurized and built of steel tubing with fabric covering, there is no reason those aircraft won’t still be flying 100 years from now. Literally.
I wonder what inflation will do to the cost of those airframes over the years? If you were to take that little beauty into your family, like my granddad’s house, that $15,000 T-Craft might sell for several times that much when one of your grandchildren, or their grandchildren, finally put it back onto the market.
Learning to fly? Picking up an inexpensive flyer to learn in might be the most cost-effective way to get airborne. Flying your own airplane for $40 an hour could save a boatload of cash over renting a considerably more expensive trainer. And you would have an airplane to fly, or sell, or trade-up with when your training is completed.
Instead of an RV to travel the wild west in, why not consider a flying machine that you and your spouse can travel in? The views will be spectacular, you’ll get to your destination faster, and you will no doubt discover diversions and hidden treasures along the way that just aren’t visible from the highway.
And unlike a rental, you won’t have to pay a daily minimum charge during your travels. Tuck the airplane away overnight, or for a week, without worrying about running up a bill as you extend the vacation of your dreams.
This is a buyer’s market. Soon to become an even more lopsided arrangement in favor of the buyer. Tough times are upon us again. And they will be again one day. In between there will be sunny days, better conditions, and rosy outlooks. Reality is reality. The wheel continues to turn.
Difficult economic times have always had this effect. My granddad knew that. He’d seen it happen. Post World War I, the Depression, World War II, the recession following Vietnam, and on and on it goes. Those with the desire and the means to buy vacation homes, collector cars, boats, airplanes, and the like will find deals that were unthinkable just a few months ago.
The future will come, one way or another. In that future, would you like to be an airplane owner? If so, this time may be the best opportunity you’ll see for a good long while.
Personally, I’m thinking about that Stinson. Perhaps it’s time for me to have a chat with my wife. After all, adventure awaits. And right now, it’s more cost-effective than ever.
Jamie – just go for it
There is a 48 Stinson 108-3 in eastern CT craiglist for 5000. Its in a covered shed needs restore alum skins. Bones in pic look OK. I am not current or tail wheel endorsed so I have not gone to visit.
Just remember there is no such thing as a free lunch, Its been there awhile so might be a little room
> ” . . . I peruse the ‘usual suspects’, everyday; TAP, Barnstormers, Hangar67, EBay…and GA News.”
We can add “Aviator’s Bulletin” to the list of resources. Either it disappeared for two or three years or I did, but I have a fresh issue in front of me as I write this. Now that Pacific Flyer at Oceanside is TU this is Southern California’s remaining Trade-a-Plane. It’s always been full of unusual and unexpected items.
Aviators Bulletin
116 Bryant Street
Ojai, California 93023
(805) 646-6042
[email protected]
This is inspirational. Before Hurricane Andrew our former neighbors were totally askew with health issues for one, death of the other, and then came the storm. The wife’s family (wife was judged incompetent due to illness) dumped the house for 1/10th of its value. We didn’t jump at it. Someone else did and they realized a huge profit five years later when they sold the place. There will be tragedies and sad stories, but if one sees a deal and has cash in hand, go for it!
I want to pick up on BJS and gbig’s points. I apologize if my comments irk some folks.
I’ve been hunting for the ‘perfect plane’ (note: dripping with sarcasm) for well over a year, and I haven’t seen a real downward trend in prices.
Caveat: I guess if we’re complaining about buying an airplane, in this day and age, we really have nothing to complain about.
Lots of popular models (decent Super Cubs, Cessna 180/185, etc.) have been on a price trajectory that has already put them well out of reach for lots of us common folk. I don’t think any long or short term adverse economic conditions will change that.
Sellers are certainly free to get whatever they can. But I see prices for older legacy Part 23 airplanes that border on ridiculous. On the other hand, who’d a thought that a 1970 Plymouth Hemi ‘Cuda would fetch $3.2M at auction? Maybe light GA planes are becoming the “muscle cars” of the future…?
I’m not an opportunistic bottom-
feeder, trying to take advantage of someone else’s misfortune. I’m willing to pay cash if it’s within my budget. I don’t want to go through escrow. (We’re obviously not talking turbines here.) I’ll do my own “paperwork” research, and if the logistics of getting a pre-buy inspection are too daunting, I’ll trust my own judgement, and an IA’s signature on a recent annual, to determine if that airplane is a safe bet.
I cruise airports religiously, looking for possibilities, and I peruse the ‘usual suspects’, everyday; TAP, Barnstormers, Hangar67, EBay…and GA News. Yes, you can find the occasional nice, flyable T-craft, Luscomb, Champ, or Stinson for a reasonable price…
But what I find more often, for example, is the owner that has decided their mid-60’s Cessna 150 is worth $55,000, because…it still flies?
When I ask, politely, where they came up with that figure, I’ll frequently hear “from AOPA’s VRef”…
Yeah, well, VRef’s baseline is a plane in “good” condition, which includes basic radios and is ADS-B Out compliant: Your faded, hail-damaged, never-been-hangared, “8 out of 10” flyer has neither.
It also has an engine that’s 958 hours past TBO; or it’s the original 55+ year old engine, has never been topped or ‘cracked open’, and only has 1000 hours TT on it.
I’m well aware of the various opinions on “operating past TBO”. Regardless, I still have to factor the price to rebuild/replace that engine into my costs. For an engine that’s way past TBO, in hours and/or years, I’d have to add that to the purchase price of the airplane and hope for the best.
Lots of folks don’t know the plane’s history well enough to tell if it was pickled & stored, or just parked somewhere and not flown for months at a time. My favorite, teeth-grinding response; “It was run up once a week to get the oil warm”.
I’m also surprised at sellers that aren’t aware of, or try to gloss over, damage history? (“Oh, you mean THAT accident?”) That, plus missing logs, STCs, significant modifications w/o 337s, on & on…it may or may not be a “Buyer’s Market”, but, as always, it’s a “Let the Buyer Beware” market.
Subject for another tirade.
Trying to get a “good deal” on an airplane due to the current pandemic situation is only part of the story. The few you might find will likely be owned by marginally capitalized folks who likely don’t take care of them. The really good deals are still few and far in between but persistence — with cash ready and in hand — can pay off when you ‘pounce.’
You alluded to and I agree with another factor, as well … buy the right airplane, keep it a long time and your descendants will be enjoying a nice airplane who’s value has held up well. Or, if you take care of it and find you need to sell it, you’ll find you’ve probably flown it for very few bucks.
I learned how to fly 50 years ago at the Beale AFB, CA Aero Club. Our civil maintenance facility was located on the Marysville airport (MYV). I remember a forlorn P-51 parked on the ramp there with glycol running out of it. As I remember it, it was for sale for $10K. There’s your deal. (After the War, it likely sold for $1K?). I remember reading Trade-a-Plane and seeing DC-3’s or C-47’s for sale for … $10K. There’s your deal. Back in 1982, someone at Mojave gave me a ride in his P-51 and then showed me the T-6G he previously used which was for sale for $25K. There’s your deal. In the first two cases, I was a young USAF “buck” and couldn’t even conceive of owning either but that T-6G … I coulda written the check that day IF I had a hangar. I’ll always kick myself in the butt over that one.
I’ve owned a C172M for — are ya ready — 35 years. The “M” model is the one to have IMHO. I put in a larger 160hp engine via STC and the thing is all the airplane I’ve ever needed. I lust for a C182 but … why? All I do is fly recreationally and rarely cross country. That explains why I’ve owned it so long. At this point, I CAN’T sell it … it’s my buddy. I bought it in 1985 for $13.5K … there was MY deal. I bought the factory new O-320 when Piper couldn’t afford to pay for a bunch they ordered for … $13.5K. Could I sell the airplane for that same $27K total ($30K w/ ADS-B) … all day long. I also bought a PA28-140, flew it for 15 years and sold it for the same price I bought it for … there’s another of my deals.
So if you lust to own an airplane … save your bucks and get ready to pounce when the right situation presents itself. The secret is to decide what you want, be patient and be ready.
I used to fly out of Phoenix Field, in Fair Oaks, and we’d fly up to Marysville (when the restaurant was still open), and I remember that P-51, have told people about it over the years. About that same era (late 60s, early 70s) there was a forlorn B-25 at Auburn and an old A-26 at Lincoln. Often wondered whatever happened to those birds, but I know the went for cheap. Later flew out with Comet Airways at Marysville when I was living up there and ‘doing’ radio. Good times.
What small world and a long memory, Greg. I think Comet Airways may well have been our maintenance facility for Beale AFB ?? I’m pretty sure. I remember when there was a FSS co-located at MYV which was a pseudo tower … those days are long gone, too. So here’s two off topic short stories you’ll enjoy.
In 1970, on the day I figured my flight instructor — who I’m STILL friends with and is a retired airline Captain — might solo me, my Dad was visiting from Chicago. I had my girlfriend take him to that very restaurant and he got to see his Son solo an airplane for the first time. That airplane is still someplace in the NAPA valley.
Later, using VA funded flight training, I was working on a commercial certificate (before you had to have an instrument rating first). The Chief Pilot at Beale would have students pick him up at Natomas in the AM and the last student of the day take him back at night. One night it was my turn. The 182 had to go to Comet so I flew from Natomas to MYV to trade airplanes. On short final at nite, something happened and I landed about 20′ short of the runway in some soft soil. It went OK but next day I was flying a C310 and on short final my instructor noticed some wheel marks in the sand. He said, “Some fool landed short.” I didn’t say anything just nodded in agreement.
THOSE were the days. Funny that someone who remembered that P-51 is still around. Nice to meet you.
That’s so cool that your Dad was there to see you solo! My Dad was visiting me here in Sacramento one day (back in the 90s) – he’d been a pilot since ’49, and that’s where I got the bug – I was flying the Cub out at Natomas one day, with him watching – strong crosswind that day (not abnormal for that field), narrow runway – it was too squirrely on the first pass, so one of the few go-arounds I’ve ever had to make had Dad as a witness – it was a little embarrassing, but made up for it on the landing. Pretty funny story about the short landing! Where are you now, and are you retired, but still flying? Also funny, I was flying out of Comet working on a commercial under the GI Bill, too, about the same time you were working on yours at Beale. Take care out there, and stay safe.
Back to the original thread – here’s my ‘good deal’ story – when I was 17 or so I already had an appreciation of vintage cars – there was a ’59 Caddy (my fave) for sale in our neighborhood – 3-tone, 4-door hardtop, only $250 (a lot of money for a poor teen in the late 60s) – and Dad wouldn’t lend it to me. I said “Dad, it’s such GREAT deal”, and his response was: “Son, there will ALWAYS be great deals out there”. Never forgot it, but not sure I ever completely forgave him, either! Selling off a few airplane projects now, and they will be ‘great deals’ for somebody out there.
Greg … I distinctly remember and have a mental picture of that narrow runway at Natomas. I never liked it. I seem to remember a few less than stellar landings in the C182 there myself.
Yeah … if we’d only have known, we’da bought up all those limited production muscle cars of the late 60’s and stashed ’em.
I seem to remember something else about Comet. Didn’t they have a military model of the Cessna 195 in the shop that had a specially installed extra emergency door on the left side plus flare launchers?
Like you, I’m backing out and selling things myself. Two years ago, I let a younger pilot take my pristine PA28 away; the C172M I’ve owned for 35 years will be the last to go. BasicMed is allowing me to do it on MY terms and on MY schedule. 50 years as a pilot and A&P are enough … sadly, time for a new hobby with less bravo sierra.
I see the Beale Aero Club is still active … one of the few that is.
Inflation is a thing.
Airplanes are not “cost-effective”. The real cost comes after the bird is bought. General aviation has never been within reach of the general population, which is why it’s in the sorry shape it’s in.
Hi Jamie – re Stinson 108-3’s, you should meet my buddy Rich P. email me if you are interested about the “Twiins”. It’s a great story with pictures :-))
Some of the advice given here is certainly on point, but it being a buyers market for airplanes or anything else, except in isolated cases as mentioned by gbigs, is pure baloney. As an aside from the topic of this column, once again we’re privy to the incompetence and inefficiency of government with regards to any relief for the public; or anything else for that matter. I just read an email from my Congressman stating that people waiting on their $1,200 who filed a return for 2018 or 2019, but didn’t give the IRS any bank information, for a refund for example, will be months receiving their paper check. See if the IRS will wait months to receive a paper check from you if you owe any taxes. If they do you’ll pay a hefty fine plus an interest rate that would make a check cashing establishment or credit card company proud!!
There will be some deals “out there” but they’ll be one-offs – someone who has only a single source of income and was overleveraged to begin with. The people who are being whacked the hardest are people who live paycheck to paycheck or do gig work or drive for Uber. Their incomes were not stable anyway, and depended on the continuous good times rolling – if there’s a burp, they have a problem. Most of them aren’t airplane owners in the first place, and their problems (which are significant!) don’t affect the airplane market.
I’m told that there are some real good deals on jetliners now. Southwest’s revenues are off a whopping 95%, Virgin Australia is bankrupt, Virgin Atlantic is in serious trouble with Branson offering his private island as collateral for a government loan (it won’t be enough), and many other airlines either not flying now or won’t be flying again – this is the peril of overleveraging, something airlines do all the time.
How to survive the next economic crisis – don’t have all your eggs in one basket, have multiple income streams that don’t require your full attention (rental units, stocks, passive investments), accumulate some reserves in the bank in cold, hard cash, and don’t try to keep up with the Kardashians or even the Joneses, unless you want to meet them in line at bankruptcy court.
Finally, don’t expect ANY help from the government. The only difference between us and any other banana republic is that we haven’t had a military takeover. Politicians are concerned with one thing and one thing only – getting re-elected. The government response to Covid so far has been confusion, incompetence, panic, accusations, in fact absolutely ANYTHING except listening to epidemiologists and doctors.
Churchill said you can always trust the Americans to do the right thing – after they’ve tried everything else first. Hopefully enough of us will survive this to eventually do the right thing. We’re not there yet.
Nonsense. An extended recession or depression would be required at this point to lower prices by much. This applies to everything…houses, cars and aircraft. This economic burp is not a mystery and is not long-term. The only ‘deal’ you might find is someone who ran out of cash in the couple of months during this business outage and for some odd reason is deciding to liquidate everything they own, including a plane. There you might be able to swoop in and take advantage of someone. Other than that, nah.