No Bueno translates to No Go

The go/no go decision is one everyone from every walk of life should consider on a daily basis. Few do. Mostly because they don’t see the need. What could happen? How bad could it be, really?

The challenge for most of us, pilots included, is in recognizing the cues to making a good go/no-go decision.

Occasionally the signs are clear. This past weekend for instance, a direct flight from Key West to Tampa, Florida, in most piston-driven general aviation aircraft would be a hard no. Tropical Storm Sally was whipping up winds, dropping ceilings, and generally making safe, enjoyable flights impossible.

Realizing that flying in a tropical storm that’s projected to become a hurricane is not a particularly tough decision. Let’s be honest, that’s tantamount to deciding whether this is a good time to head out on a pizza run, shortly after noticing your car is actively ablaze. 

Some decisions are simple. Others aren’t. It’s the decisions that happen in the latter category that can get us into trouble.

Primary in our muddled decision-making process is our annoying tendency to equate two remarkably different situations as two very similar situations.

Say, for instance, you’re planning a trip from Point A to Point B. If you’ve never been to Point B before, your planning is likely to be more thorough. You’ll look at runway lengths, NOTAMs, the weather en route, as well as at your destination. You might even check to see if they’ve got services available. That’s especially true if the journey will push the limits of your fuel capacity. 

It’s no fun to get to your destination only to realize too late that you can’t get out.

On the other hand, if you’ve been to Point B multiple times you may decide to do the quick back-of-the-matchbook version of flight planning. That often involves little more than looking out the window and checking to see that you’ve got enough fuel. In really weak cases, maybe you don’t even do that much. 

Recently I completed the oral portion of a flight review with a pilot I’ve known for many years. He’s getting on in years, as am I, and that can lead to some complacency. The ceiling was well down below my VFR limits, so we discussed flying to a particular airport on another day. He agreed.

However, during our discussion it became apparent his pre-flight planning wasn’t as detailed as it had been in years past. In fact, in some cases he wasn’t doing much planning at all. He was developing the habit of just launching into the void and seeing what happens. 

That’s not a practice that’s going to end well in the long term. So, I encouraged him to revert to his previous, more comprehensive planning method. He assured me he would.

He didn’t. 

Since he was still current, he decided to make the flight prior to making it with me, as something of a dress rehearsal to his flight review. His flight planning was deficient, which he was completely unaware of until he got to his destination, entered the pattern for the runway best aligned with the wind, and made the appropriate radio call. That’s when he got a call back letting him know the runway was closed for maintenance.

He hadn’t gotten a true briefing, so he was unaware of the NOTAM, which put him in an embarrassing and potentially dangerous position. Not only was he entering the pattern for a closed runway, he was entering a pattern that intersected the one in use by other aircraft he hadn’t noticed or considered. 

Oops. 

Of course, a no-go decision can be due to much less obvious stuff than a missed briefing. I haven’t flown for the past week. Not because I don’t want to, but because I shouldn’t. My dentist tells me the tooth that’s been bothering me is infected. The specialist he sent me to assures me it’s time for a root canal, after I’ve finished the antibiotics prescribed to kill the infection. 

Dentists are loath to prescribe pain medication in the current environment, which is probably a good thing. But an infected tooth can be a painful thing, and mine certainly has been. The advice I got from the dental professionals I’ve been dealing with is to take two entirely different over-the-counter pain relievers simultaneously. By popping 650 mg of Tylenol, as well as 600 mg of Advil, pain management wouldn’t be an issue. And it hasn’t been. This particular cocktail of medicines has made my last week or so far less uncomfortable. Yay!

However, having that much pain medication on board hasn’t done much for my mental acuity. Maybe the slightly slower response times and increased lapses of memory are psychosomatic. And maybe they’re not. Either way, being even slightly less on the ball than normal gives me a really good reason to ground myself, to decide on a hard no-go until I’m back in the pain free pink.

So, as you look out the window at the driving rain, whipping winds, and lawns strewn with downed branches, perhaps that’s not the best time to head out to the mall for a shopping adventure.

I know it’s not far and you’ve done it a hundred times before. But this time is this time. None of the other successful forays into the wild count.

This is where the go/no-go decision matters. And for my money, if I find myself thinking, “It will probably work out,” that’s a hard no.

The word “probably” should not figure positively into your flight planning. It’s possible that rule should extend into your day-to-day life as well. It’s up to you. 

Me, I’ll err on the conservative side. That’s worked well for me to this point.