This past week something remarkable occurred on live streaming video for all the world to see.
Elon Musk, the enfant terrible of the tech world, introduced the public to a pick-up truck so far out of the mainstream in terms of styling that many initially took it as a joke. Surely there must be a more traditional looking model sitting in the wings, ready to roll out after we all had a good laugh at this ugly duckling.
Nope. The unfinished steel shell, blacked-out windows, and sharp angular form are the real deal. This news surprised a great many who had been anticipating something amazing, not something so repugnantly unrefined.
When the markets opened, Tesla stock fell more than 6%. The world saw and the world responded. Musk’s big reveal was a bust. The CyberTruck would be a loser of the first order.
Or so it seemed. Musk came back with fire, tweeting that his company had received 146,000 orders for the much maligned vehicle in just 24 hours, which translates to $8 billion in sales.
In the interest of full disclosure I’m honor bound to mention, one of the orders on Tesla’s books belongs to me. There will be a CyberTruck in my driveway sometime in late 2021, or 2022, or something like that. I believe in a weird, bright future.
So, what’s all this got to do with aircraft, aviation, or the price of avgas?
Plenty. Our world is on the cusp of a change. A major shift in how transportation works. And you’re sitting right up front with a great view of the field.
When my granddad was a young man living in what would eventually become a retiree’s paradise on the Gulf Coast of Florida, transportation was simple. Each power source clocked in at one horsepower and ran on a few squares of hay, a cup of grain, and a bucket of reasonably fresh water. If your wagon was heavy, you might strap a second horse into the harnesses. Voilà! Two horsepower.
This was before air conditioning, of course. Before paved roads, electricity, and running water made their way to the neighborhood. Aviation was in its infancy.
One of the big tricks only recently accomplished by the pioneers of the field was the turn. Not a level turn, mind you. Powerplants and propellers didn’t yet produce enough thrust to accomplish that feat. But even so, an intentional change of direction was a major step in the right direction for powered fliers.
How times have changed.
By the time dear old granddad had his first job, the Curtiss JN-4 biplane was making waves. Built of wood, covered in fabric, and powered by a 90-hp OX-5 engine, the Jenny was a wonder. It flew almost exclusively from grass fields, landing and taking off wherever the opportunity presented itself. With the ability to cruise at 75 mph and carry a passenger in relative comfort, the Jenny was a world beater — so much so it’s still revered today, more than 100 years later.
Time would illustrate all too clearly, however, the Jenny wasn’t the end game. It was just a stepping stone to the next big concept.
By the time my grandfather had become a father himself, just a couple decades after the Jenny first flew, the Curtiss P-40 was sitting on the paved ramp of a well-established airport, ready to go. More than 1,000 horsepower hid in the nose of the airplane, ready to propel it past 350 mph, and race to more than 30,000′ above the earth.
Twenty years after that, Boeing put the 707 into service flying more than 100 people at a time across oceans in a pressurized, shirt-sleeve environment. The 707 was powered by four turbine engines that produced a combined 72,000 pounds of thrust.
At the exact same time, astronauts were preparing to take their first steps toward landing on the moon.
All this, within 40 or so years of Glenn Curtiss’ company launching a wood framed slow-poke, covered in cotton, flying out of a farmer’s field.
In between there were thousands of misfires, errors, failures, and flat-out blunders that sent engineers and mechanics into the shadows, shaking their heads, trying to figure out where they’d gone wrong.
And yet here we are, with aviation more capable, safer, and more economically feasible than it’s ever been.
Not long ago the Solar Impulse flew around the entire globe, powered by electric motors, driving high-tech propellers. Another impossible feat fell to the record books.
It happened. It will happen again, too. Faster, with greater comfort, and on a more practical mission.
Just as Lindbergh’s Spirit of St. Louis paved the way for Pan American to span the globe, the Solar Impulse has blazed a trail for a new type of propulsion to come into play.
Just as Tesla’s Armor Glass didn’t measure up during the live demonstration, there will be failures as aviation shifts to an electric power solution. But that solution will come. With more powerful batteries and quicker recharging technologies and a thousand other little details that will never occur to the majority of us — electric power is coming to an airplane near you, sooner than you think.
It’s no great feat of prediction to make this suggestion. It’s all happening right now, today, in shops and labs all over the world. Perhaps one day that classic Cub will be powered by a quiet, efficient, electric motor that performs as well as — or better than — the C-65 it originally came with.
When that day comes, the only question that still bugs me is what will the neighbors complain about then? When the engine is hushed, the exhaust fumes are no more, and the only evidence left behind is a slight buzzing sound far overhead, will those communities that closed their airports a decade before regret their hasty decision?
Yeah, I think they will. Very much so.
Wonder what Molt Taylor could’ve done with a Tesla Cybertruck….?
My Brother headed a team that developed the fuel cell for Nasa back in the 60’s. He laughs at the batteries that are still being used to push electric. He has no problem with the electric – and says that it is definitely the future for many vehicles, but until there is a breakthrough in battery technology, we have not moved ahead. Changing the shape/looks of vehicles and adding electric motors is not something new. The first cars were electric powered. Train locomotives have been electric driven for decades and the largest Leterourneau earth movers and mining equipment have depended on electric motors for drive power for decades. Musk is more Marketeer than Engineer.
So was Jim Bede …
you can bet big oil is behind battery powered vehicles.
I think electric vehicles of any stripe are a curiosity; a flash in the pan. Owing to the amazing energy density of gasoline and it’s relatively low price, folks are accustom to vehicles that can traverse 100s of miles without refueling. We all do it every day and take it for granted. By contrast, batteries of any chemistry weigh significantly more than the energy equivalent of gasoline. Getting an airplane aloft on batteries and sustaining its flight over a customary distance is a fable ranking with the tooth faerie. What would make more sense would be small, compact, and heavily safety secured nuclear power plants for cars, trucks, and planes. Of course, that would invite a whole host of its own problems with waste disposal, refueling, sabotage, etc.
All in all, the piston internal combustion engine running of petroleum distillates is likely here to stay permanently. Electric vehicles will fall out of favor along with AM radio stereo and HD; Betamax tape recording; hula hoops and other curiosities and relics of bygone eras.
Regards/Jim Potter
Kimberling City MO
Non-Aviation people are already clueless. They buy homes around airports because the land is cheap, as airport operations can be noisy. Then, although the airport was there first, they complain about the noise, and attempt to close the airport – Santa Monica and Reid-Hillview come to mind.
As far a quiet, electric planes go, batteries with sufficient specific energy aren’t going to be available until a distant future. I think the better solution would be fuel cells, such as what was used by NASA.
And don’t consider electric airplanes any greener than ICE powered airplanes. All that electricity has to come from somewhere, and usually it’s natural gas or coal fired powerplants that supply the electricity.
yes, I myself have been wondering how many more thousands of power plants, (millions of windmills) its going to take to power the “green” electric revolution…and the mess that’s made harvesting the lithium…
The Cybertruck reminds me of Barnaby Wainfan’s Facetmobile.
The Tesla truck sure looks s lot like the F117, stealth fighter.
Electric vehicles will always be a niche market item. An electric powered aircraft will have an even smaller market, due to the high battery weight and low energy capacity as compared to gasoline of jet fuel.
Folks think that the electric cars are simple, high reliability vehicles. However they have complex electronic motor controls that are water cooled , as are some of the motors. Besides the high voltage drive battery, they also have a 12 volt battery for the accessories – instruments, lights, hvac….
There have been many innovative vehicles that never gained popularity; Stanley and Doble steam cars, the Chrysler turbine car of the 60’s, NSU and Mazda with the wankle., the straight 8 and flat head engines.
Great article, Mr. Jamie Backett. Congratulations for a outstanding vision of aviation and people.
As always, Jamie, a well-written, important history lesson and good thoughts. (And good points by Squito and Miami Mike.)
Even presuming totally silent, fume-free aircraft, we can foresee complaints of planes potentially crashing into homes, schools, etc. Regarding the future, UAS (aka “drones”) increase in use, and seem the top issue in aviation law; there have already been the incidents involving and complaints about them, and the FAA to local municipalities are trying to sort out the issues. And don’t forget, “flying cars” and similar vehicles continue through the R&D phase, foreseeably creating new issues.
Will communities regret succumbing to The Santa Monica Disease, as it has been called? It probably depends, ultimately, on the community, especially as its economy and demographics might evolve. For now, it has stricken Reid-Hillview Airport, a situation which we GA advocates must watch.
(PS – and before any comments about lawyers, remember: many represent GA interests, and no, not just for the fees, but for the law and principles involved!)
Musk’s goofy design is NOT a new era. It’s a laughable dud…similar to the Bucky Fuller Dymaxion car of the 30s. It looks more like a land-bound stealth midget plane than a car and has no practical application as a ‘truck.’ Sometimes when you see something so far out it makes no sense; it actually makes no sense.
When he actually NEEDS a truck to move or pull something, I’ll go over to my hangar and get my 460ci F250HD Ford … THAT is a truck. I guess when you get as wealthy as Elon, you can have fun with Society.
he does have the semi-truck in development
Yeah … OK … great … will it look like THIS goofy thang ??
Planes powered with electric motors won’t necessarily be the hushed flying machines you suggest. Just as many Harley riders shift to straight exhaust pipes without mufflers to get a loud, throaty rumble from their bikes, many of the local pilot’s put sea plane props on planes that will never fly off of water. The scream of the tips on those long props going supersonic causes much more nose on takeoff than the engines. Some folks are just attracted to the noise their toys can make and if that noise doesn’t come from the power plant, there are other ways to generate enough sound to ensure your departures are noticed. The future will be interesting but it won’t be universally quiet.
Will the communities regret closing the airport? Probably not, as the new technology will not require the real estate needed for long runways and approaches. What the communities will complain about is that their neighbor operates an electric VTOL air vehicle from their backyard and can see over their fence when they come and go, and that the aircraft will fall on their roof. Of course, cities and county’s will move to ban, require permit, or license such operations, and HOAs and Condo Associations will ban them. Then some will complain when municipal officials tear down a building in city center to accommodate a landing site, because they soon realize they need to accommodate the new technology if they want to stay vibrant. Uber, Amazon, and other transportation network companies will need a place to operate from. We’ll see a reversal of development downtown, just like a new commuter train station results in surrounding growth and development. Just hope it’s not an historic building they tear down. However, all those empty malls across the nation could be converted to storage and operating sites 😉 A win-win,
You voluntarily want to pay good money for THAT and think it’s a great idea !! ?? Say … I own a bridge in Brooklyn I’d like to sell you a few shares in. You could carry the documents in the back of your new “truck.”
Will communities which have closed their airports regret it? You bet they will, but they will NEVER admit it because that would be a very public confession that they were WRONG.
They’ll watch successful businesses which pay good wages leave town because there is no air transportation.
They’ll watch all the young people leave town because there are no good jobs in town any more. Flipping burgers isn’t the start of a good career path.
They’ll watch as their tax base shrivels as their population ages and nobody moves into town because it is now nothing more than a backwater and has nothing to offer anyone any more.
They’ll watch when nobody applies for a building permit for anything because there is no point in living there any more. They’ll watch when the few remaining retail stores close because they can’t compete with WalMart and Amazon. They’ll watch their town die on the vine, they won’t be able to afford municipal services because the tax base is withering, and before long, transportation will be just like it was in the so called good old days, one horse, some hay, and a bucket of water.
Closing the airport is like closing the roads, shutting off the electricity and yanking out all the phones. Eventually, the few remaining stubborn residents will wonder what happened to their town, and they’ll never make the connection that it was THEY themselves who signed the death warrant.
Want a sure indication that a town is doomed? They close their airport.
Precisely, Mike !! Conversely, I inhabit a small airport up north in summer where the small town of 2,200 DOES view its airport as one of the draws and economic engines and it shows. I tell them your story all the time.
Excellent response Mike. Dead-on accurate.
Jamie,
I’m just wondering, how much deposit was required on the Tesla Pickup Truck? Is it refundable if you change your mind?
It was $100. I don’t know if it was refundable or not.
From their website today (30 Nov 2019):
“Due Today $100. Fully refundable. You will be able to complete your configuration as production nears in late 2021. Tri Motor AWD production is expected to begin in late 2022.” You can go to tesla dot com and look under the cybertruck link for more details.