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It’s a numbers game

By Jamie Beckett · February 25, 2025 · 16 Comments

(Photo by Pablo Barrios)

Due to a series of highly publicized aircraft accidents in recent weeks, many people have become wary of the aviation industry. These accidents happened hundreds of miles apart, had no common factor other than involving aircraft and, in at least one spectacular example that was caught on film in Toronto, every passenger and crew member survived.

Aviation is a much better transportation deal than the news might have the casual observer believe.

Go with me on this for a minute.

Christian Lopez is a singer and songwriter who originates from West Virginia. I’ve been a big fan for about 10 years — which means I started buying his records and enjoying his work when he was a teenager.

He’s good. Check him out. I did recently when he played the Wiley House Concert venue in Clearwater, Florida. It was a wonderful night out. The trek by car from my house to the venue is 72 miles. Being a fan, I went to that show.

Phoenix, Arizona, is not just one of the fastest growing cities in the United States, it’s also my original hometown. Well, Tempe is technically my original hometown, but I was born in Phoenix. That should count for something.

By air, Denver lies 571 nautical miles from Phoenix. My youngest was assigned a flight from Denver to Phoenix that happened to correspond with my planned departure time as I headed to Clearwater. She is a flight attendant who was traveling in an Airbus A320. I was driving a Ford Maverick. The pick-up truck, not the semi-Mustang model of the 1970s.

My girl’s flight taxied from the gate within five minutes of me climbing into the truck and firing it up. She had no inclement weather to deal with. I had no road construction, traffic accidents, or broken-down cars on the side of the road along my route. Four-lane divided highways were available to me for almost the entire journey. The Airbus did what airliners do in the sky.

Being a mom, my wife tracked our daughter’s flight using an app on her phone. Moms do that sort of thing. And bless her for being so vigilant. Had she not been I might not have known that kid number three and her 150 or so passengers arrived at their destination, deplaned, and went about their business well before my wife and I arrived at the far end of our little jaunt.

You might wonder how is that possible? The airplane traveled nearly eight times as far, with far more restrictions and management from outside forces (ATC), yet it arrived more quickly than a car can travel a much shorter distance on straight, flat, well-maintained highways on a clear day.

That may seem like a conundrum, but it is not. It is the normal state of affairs.

Driving is an every day activity for many Americans. Flying is an occasional experience. Flight is considered by many to be a little scary. But is it actually dangerous?

Florida averages 1,082 car accidents every day, year-round. And that’s just the state of Florida. Texas averages about 50% higher crash numbers. New York City averages better than 600 a day. And that’s just within city limits.

Nationally, we suffer roughly 36,000 car accidents every day. On average that results in 115 fatalities a day. Non-fatal injuries come in at about 7,500 on a daily basis.

Yet, the general public sees driving as relatively safe and flying as generally risky.

The FAA oversees an impressive 45,000 flights each day. And that doesn’t include the untold number of general aviation aircraft flying in Class G and E airspace using no ATC services.

Random people like you and me who fly from non-towered fields increase that daily number substantially, although not by a numerical value that can be easily calculated.

Having all these numbers available, we might consider the relative safety, efficiency, and overall value of aviation to the general public. Is flying really more challenging than driving to the store?

Consider this: What percentage of drivers would you estimate are thoroughly focused on their role as the sole manipulator of the controls, as opposed to pilots in flight? Do drivers maintain a sterile environment during high workload phases of the drive, or are they more likely listening to music, engaging in conversation with passengers, and finagling with their phone?

(Photo courtesy Wikimedia)

An airway is eight nautical miles wide. The average lane of a road is 10 to 12 feet wide. The likelihood of an aircraft straying out of its lane to threaten another aircraft is slim. It very rarely happens. Cars do it every day. Hundreds of times. Maybe thousands.

That airliner includes a number of flight attendants who are matched to the number of passengers. Their job isn’t really to serve drinks and suffer verbal abuse. That’s just what they do in their down time. Their real purpose is to manage a catastrophe well enough to save the lives of those paying passengers who think they’re on an aerial Greyhound bus.

Can you even imagine the training and dedication to duty that prepares a small number of individuals to safely evacuate dozens of terrified passengers from an inverted aircraft in a timely manner?

I’d wager that accident and its aftermath indicate a system of training and testing that should be the envy of every motorist in the land — few of whom will even consider the parallel to their own lives and activities.

Long live aviation in all its marvelous forms. Flawed as we may be as individuals, we’ve collectively accomplished an amazing feat with a high level of safe outcomes for millions of passengers over so many years.

That should count for something.

About Jamie Beckett

Jamie Beckett is the AOPA Foundation’s High School Aero Club Liaison. A dedicated aviation advocate, you can reach him at: [email protected]

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Comments

  1. mjn says

    March 3, 2025 at 7:29 am

    I read once that GA risk was on par with that of motorcycles. Still true?

    Reply
  2. Marc says

    March 1, 2025 at 8:54 am

    There are two competing forces in aviation. One is to market the sport as safe to sell airplanes and keep flight schools filled. The other is reality that you can get killed very easily if you lack judgment, knowledge and skills. Saying that is more risky on the road is listening to the first force. Data per mile travelled is the second. Forget about number two and your risk goes up.

    Reply
  3. Chris says

    March 1, 2025 at 8:44 am

    The sky is not man’s natural element. There’s always more of an adventurous element to leaving the ground. Couple that with the fact that the general public is pretty ignorant of the aviation world in general beyond snagging a good aisle seat. What you don’t understand is always going to seem more dangerous than it really is.

    Statistically, GA is not safer than driving, but statistics don’t tell the whole story. The real risk on any given flight is more dependent on the pilot. Their training, proficiency, and ability to manage risk. That’s a hard thing to explain to people

    Reply
  4. Richard Tasker says

    March 1, 2025 at 7:41 am

    While I agree with you and your article and am a GA pilot, the comparison would be better stated as number of accidents or fatalities per hour of exposure for a statistically meaningful comparison. You know the driving public is going to say: “Yes, more people are killed driving than flying, but that is because there is so much more driving”. I just had this discussion with someone who is scared of flying because they just know flying is so much more dangerous than driving…

    Reply
  5. Jimmy Phillips says

    March 1, 2025 at 5:34 am

    Quick and short:
    1. General Aviation’s Risk Management Matrix puts a lot of focus on individuals.
    Same as freedom, it scares some people.

    2. Surface transportation is mandatory.
    Aviating is surface transportation with an asterisk.

    3. Aviating costs more and is more glamorous than driving, Thus, it is more exciting
    to know about. Sells more media. Possible class warfare psychology.

    4. Yes, I’m in the entertainment industry, and learned #3 there. Science and statistics will
    never close these comparisons.

    Reply
  6. Oneworld says

    February 28, 2025 at 11:38 am

    Agreed. Flying is safe. As long as we don’t allow the facts to make us complacent, or to cause us to stop searching for safer methods of travel, we can relax, and enjoy aviation as a whole.

    Reply
  7. Waldo Pepper says

    February 26, 2025 at 8:14 pm

    Nice job,
    And yes, much of the public thinks flying is more dangerous than driving.
    Much of the public are morons. 😉

    Reply
  8. Paul J Lewis says

    February 26, 2025 at 1:59 pm

    I would say Yes flying is safer. A few mounts ago I stopped at a red light. There were 3 lights red for a left turn witch I was taking. and two for going Stright. The two lights going straight turned green. I was turning left that light Stayed red. So, I did not move. They lady behind me did not
    stop and rammed me. This totaled my car. It was an older jeep. I had a cargo, Carrer. on my jeep. If I did not have it, I would have been killed. I got out and pointed to the light on my side. I said why did not stop. She had no answer & had no insurance.

    Reply
  9. West Charles says

    February 26, 2025 at 9:38 am

    Absolutely correct, flying anywhere with a Part 121 carrier is safer than driving to the same place.
    However, as a whole flying is hazardous to your health!
    I say this having received the Wright Brothers Master pilot award. 50 years without an accident is not easy to accomplish!
    In that 50 plus years several pilots that I have known have perished in avoidable accidents.
    How many of you have lost a friend in an aircraft accident?
    If we continue to think of flying being safe, the accident rates in general aviation will never come down!

    Reply
  10. Flying B says

    February 26, 2025 at 5:49 am

    US Bureau of Transportation Statistics for 2021 Fatalities

    Streets & Highways 42,939
    Railroads 852
    Watercraft 715
    General Aviation 344
    Air Carrier and Air Taxi 27

    Just for perspective, over 4,000 fatal drownings a year. Are swimming pool owners liability insurance 10 times higher than GA plane owners liability insurance ?

    Probably not, most people are probably less likely to sue for a drowning deaths, because most people understand swimming and pools along with the risk better than flying.

    Reply
    • James C says

      March 1, 2025 at 4:35 pm

      Hi. I’m a former lifeguard and an ocean swimmer. This summer I’ll be 74, great shape, have been swimming 55 years. I plan my swims daily in the summer, swim with proper safety gear, and take my chances. I understand accidents happen. I read many aviation accident reports and take them to heart. One can be well prepared and well intentioned. I understand my risk. And I love commercial flying. I wish you all to be well.

      Reply
  11. Scott Patterson says

    February 26, 2025 at 5:28 am

    It may be just perception that flying is more dangerous than highway. But, with 48 years of flying and 5+ million miles driving, including semi heavy haul, I never start a road trip with the anticipation of failure or the abundant satisfaction that “I made it” at destination.

    Reply
  12. John Hunt Weber says

    February 26, 2025 at 5:20 am

    Well written, Jamie.

    Reply
  13. John Hunt Weber says

    February 26, 2025 at 5:20 am

    Well written, Jamie. Thanks

    Reply
  14. Terk says

    February 26, 2025 at 4:59 am

    You are evolving into a smooth promoter of our wonderful world. Nice piece. I suspect it will be offered up by more than a few to the worry warts in their circles…

    Reply
  15. LuckyLindy says

    February 26, 2025 at 4:52 am

    The facts don’t lie…thank you for the reality check in a media clickbait culture!

    Reply

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