I like Jamie Beckett. Both as a person (most importantly) and as an aviation enthusiast. For those of you who don’t recognize the name, Jamie is one of General Aviation News’ columnists, as well as an Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) Ambassador in Florida. (We had him first 🙂 )
Like me, he’s far from objective about flying. Exactly as it should be. Flying is a great thing. For a wide variety of reasons. And none of those reasons are THE reason flying is so cool.
Just like… wing on top or bottom? Nosewheel or tailwheel? Neither is right, neither is wrong. Personal preference.
Jamie’s latest column – General aviation by the numbers – is another in a long line of pro-flying, glass half-full (or maybe all the way full) missives about why we should be pro-flying.
“The number of people walking around with a valid FAA pilot certificate in their possession is up by nearly 25,000,” states Jamie.
As Rod Machado would say, “Good thing.” Indeed it is.
But the devil, as they say, is always in the details. Let’s take a peek, shall we.
The above chart is from the FAA’s U.S. Civil Airmen Statistics (last updated December 2017).
The largest block of airmen hold a private certificate (162,455). Next is Airline Transport (159,825). In third place, and growing, is student pilots (149,121). From 2016 to 2017 those categories increased by 142, 1,931, and 20,620 respectively.
Those who dive into FAA minutiae will point to changes in the duration a student pilot certificate is valid and cry foul.
In July 2010, the FAA increased from 36 to 60 months the duration a student pilot certificate was valid for pilots under the age of 40. That bumped the student pilot population from 72,280 to 119,119 at the end of 2009. Then starting with April 2016, newly issued student pilot certificates no longer have an expiration date. Over time, the total number of student pilot certificates is likely to grow.
I can already hear the haters…“See, the FAA is just messing with the data.” “The FAA is trying to justify their existence.” “The FAA is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.”
To those haters, I say: So!
Becoming a pilot isn’t easy. From the start, as in signing up and getting a student pilot certificate isn’t easy or obvious. You’ve got to want to do it. That’s probably a good thing. But we can certainly make the process easier, while doing little harm. But that’s a subject for another time.
For those who received a student pilot certificate, that represents a dream. For some that dream is aerobatics, for others it is flying professionally, and yet for others it is a lazy Sunday afternoon $100 hamburger. There are as many reasons to learn to fly as there are students. That’s what makes flying so great. It is personal to each person.
Thirty years ago the pilot population topped 800,000. In 2017 it popped over 600,000 for the first time since 2012.
Regardless of the reasons people become pilots, a larger number is better than a smaller one.
Let’s help those dreamers take flight and push the number of private, commercial and Airline Transport pilots all the higher. A new year is just around the corner. Let’s make it the best one yet.
I am in Larry’s camp. As an amateur demographer, I too look at these numbers with a good bit of “askance”. In fact doing this professionally for a major propulsion OEM reveled that the number of GA aircraft sold were directly related to the number off MILITARY pilots (fixed and rotor wing) graduated in any given year plus a shift of about 20 years. The curves matched exactly! But now that the US Military does not create anywhere near the number of pilots they did for Korea or Viet Nam, there is naturally NO downstream positive impact.
As a second point, the numbers will get even more un-reliable as pilot numbers are (were?) counted by the number of FAA medical’s issued. With the new GA friendly non-FAA medical, one wonders if the private pilot count will decrease – although the number of humans flying will not?
More on this subject as I am working up a demographic forecast for US pilot population 2025 – 2030 – 2050 using male and female population curves, % of pilot population today and possible futures [Electric planes, VTOL’s, “self flyers” and other possible future impacts included]
There is a serious possibility of a crossover point in the GA world where there will be more GA airframes than possible pilots in the “near” future! Not sure that is true, and have some detailed modeling to do – plus need a peer review (Larry?) but it is not out of the range of possibility!
Facts are getting harder to gather as “student” pilot numbers are very soft due to the above comments.
More later!
It (flying) all boils down to Money in the end. How much you got? It seems every time I get on the right track to a pilot license, the School either doesn’t have the instructors or the price goes up substantially, or some other thing that winds up ruining my budget, Now I am retired and on a very fixed income and would have to save up 2 weeks for the cost of one hour instruction, sometimes 3 weeks so am doing what I can, to keep trying but at 75 years old no one wants to take on an old geezer. Am now trying to save up and get a used ultralight so I can get in the air which I figure maybe i should have done in the first place! Your thoughts?
I have been riding Motorcycles all my life since 14 yrs old and still ride my trusty Honda gold wing i bought new in 96 it has 230 thousand miles on it so I know about balance and banking for turns etc. and I am in good physical shape!
I would think an ultralight would be great for your situation.
Look into an “airplane” type, Mini-Max, CGS Hawk, Rans etc that has three axis control and is fairly heavy and sleek for an ultralight,they fly more like a GA airplane. Find an instructor with a light sport or something like a Cub or Champ to get training in. They are all airplanes,just not by regulation, and will fly basically the same. Any ultralight is very low mass and will slowdown VERY quickly with no power. That said don’t be afraid of them just respect what they are.
A good way to think of them relates to your motorcycle experience, a road bike and dirt bike are both motorcycles but dot expect the Goldwing to ride exactly like a 125 off road or the 125 to be the same as a ‘wing on the highway.
Good luck , be methodical and get in the air!
I agree that student pilot stats indicate nothing in regard to how many future pilots get made and whether once licensed they actually fly aircraft versus going stale and rarely flying. Many may start, few finish. And fewer still go on to fly regularly.
The real inaccuracy here is Student Pilots…we are training 1000’s of Students for Foreign Airlines…who will NEVER obtain a Private or greater certificate….they get the Student License to learn here in the US and return to their home countries….the student figures are bogus….there needs to be a catagory of Student and Vocational Foreign to show the facts
Any chance you have the numbers on the percentages of women in these categories?
Thanks for your time!
Hi Nancy… Yes. The data you seek is available on Table 2 of the reference spreadsheet.
In 2017, 42,694 is the “estimated active women airmen certificates held”. The total (men and women) is 609,306. So the percentage of women (in total pilot category) is 7%. The data is pretty easy to look at and is available here: https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/
I truly hate to become the first ‘naysayer’ about the premise of your article, Ben, but I see myself as a realist and have to chime in. Simply put, if the numbers of student pilots resulted in growth in any of the other categories, those numbers are meaningful. If it doesn’t, then the “new” MO the FAA is using is nothing more than useless if not a ruse. They’re making the paperwork simpler for themselves while skewing the pilot data in the process.
It’s a bit like trying to measure how many full fledged existing pilots decide to use light sport as a method to keep flying but now without a medical. They aren’t “active” but are still flying. All that could be said about the absolute number of light sport pilots — or all pilots — is that there is likely more than the numbers reflect. If EAA is successful with its MOSAIC activities, it’ll only get worse because pilots without medicals will be flying C172’s.
Because I’m very interested in the subject, I keep a folder full of aviation stats I glean from multiple sources. I went to stash your graph in it an looked around at other data I have. From Air Facts Journal, I see that the number of private pilots fell precipitously between 1995 and 2016 … from something around 260K to about 160K. That’s a 40% drop in 20 years. Other forward projections I have directly from the FAA show that the number of “active” student, light sport and private pilots holds steady at around 300K — about half of all pilots — as far forward as 2037. A student pilot certificate is but one stop on the train ride from civilian to private pilot. If they don’t finish that journey … what’s the point? They aren’t real pilots. And if we can’t accurately assess just where they are on that journey, the data is useless. We have no way of measuring what they’re really doing. That’s not something you can quantify with a chart.
Beyond the issue du jour, I believe that the positive trends in aviation accident statistics are — likewise — somewhat skewed. As the marginal pilots give it up, only those that take it all seriously (and have fewer accidents) are left behind. Just the other day, I had a conversation with an FAA FAAST type who said just that … that those who attend webinars and presentations are precisely those that benefit least because they already have the correct mindset. So while the FAA pats itself on the back for lower accident rates, what does that really show. In like manner, not much.
The number of “active” (non student) pilots, aircraft sales, avgas purchased, and other indicators don’t portend positive overall trends. AEA might counter that avionics sales are up but if you only count forward fit non-ADS-B sales, it isn’t.
The bottom line is that I believe that the number of student pilot certificates should no longer be displayed on the same chart as full fledged pilots … it serves no purpose. You didn’t read that I’m against mentoring or helping those that seek to become pilots … only that this data is no longer meaningful.